August 22, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy rainfall event unfolding across the southern Plains to the lower
Mississippi Valley over the next few days...

...Rounds of strong thunderstorms expected to continue moving across the
Ohio Valley and the Appalachians this evening...

...Heat in the Northwest will spread east into the northern Plains as
unsettled weather moves into the East Coast...

Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated twice a day and these updates can be found here.

A multi-day heavy rainfall event is in progress over parts of the southern
Plains as an upper-level trough begins to direct the antecedent heavy rain
across the Southwest eastward. Heavy rain will only progress relatively
slowly east toward the lower Mississippi Valley over the next couple of
days.  Additional rainfall of 3-6 inches with isolated pockets of 7+
inches are forecast to accumulate over the next 5 days from central Texas
to central Mississippi.  Much of this rainfall will be beneficial and
welcome due to the effects of an ongoing drought, but the potential still
exists for instances of flash flooding in urban areas and places with poor
drainage.  Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding
are in effect for portions of the southern Plains and lower Mississippi
Valley through Tuesday, with a moderate risk and Flash Flood Watches in
effect parts of the ArkLaTex, northeastern Texas and nearby Oklahoma
tonight.

Elsewhere, an upper-level low slowly moving eastward across the Midwest
will continue to bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which
may be severe with heavy downpours, across the Ohio Valley and into the
Appalachians tonight. A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect
as a result. Much of this activity will spread into the eastern U.S. on
Monday as a front begins to lift northward up the East Coast.  The
unsettled weather is forecast to persist into early on Tuesday as the
upper low continues to take its time moving through the Northeast.

Temperatures are expected to drop well below average across the southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley due to clouds and rainfall forecast
for that region over the next few days.  Meanwhile, the heat will continue
across the Northwest and interior California but with a gradual moderating
trend over the next couple of days.  Some of the heat is forecast to
spread eastward slowly across the northern Plains as a low pressure system
lingers in the lee side of the northern Rockies.  Over the Northeast,
above normal temperatures across New England today will give way to
increasing clouds, a chance of heavy rain and cooler temperatures over
southern New England on Monday as a warm front approaches from the south.

Maps that relate the forecast to geography can be found by clicking  Here for Day 1 and Here for Day 2.

Here is a 60-hour animated forecast map that shows how the short-term forecast is expected to play out.

If it needs to be updated click here.

HAZARDS OUTLOOKS

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays.  Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images.