Daily Short-Term and Intermediate Term Weather Forecast - July 4, 2022

This is still an experimental article so it has some problems that need to be worked on especially the tropical section.

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.:

...Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms possible across northern
tier...

...West cools down as Great Plains into Midwest warm up...

...Critical fire weather conditions to persist across the Great Basin this
weekend...

Short Range Forecast

The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center Discussion can be found here. It is updated twice a day.

Now, the Day One and Two CONUS Forecasts: These Maps Update Daily.

Day One CONUS Forecast	Day Two CONUS Forecast

These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be

The links for these two maps are https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/NationalForecastChart/staticmaps/noaad1.png and https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/NationalForecastChart/staticmaps/noaad2.png

This should play out something like shown in this 60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color-coding.

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. It includes the full discussion which I do not update in this article but I only present the highlights.

HAZARDS OUTLOOKS

Now the Day 3 – 7 Hazards Outlook Maps

The orange and red outlined areas are what is most concerning of the forecasted Day 3 – 7 Hazards. This graphic does not update during the weekend. There is a discussion that goes with this graphic and you can access that discussion here.

Looking out one more week

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d8_14_contours.png

21 to 28 Day Forecast/Outlook (On Thursday it is a 22 day forecast and when the Week 3 – 4 Forecast Updates on Friday it becomes a 28 day forecast)

The following is provided to help the reader relate the maps to how NWS will describe an area of the U.S.

Now lest us take a look at the very short-term forecasts (expressed as absolute values) and intermediate-term outlooks (deviations from Normal and associated probabilities.

First Temperature

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Showing the forecasted Day 3 Max Temp and Day’s 6 – 10, Day’s 8 – 16 and Weeks 3 – 4 Outlooks

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Max Temperature Day 3	Days 6 – 10

Days 8 – 14	Weeks 3-4

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Then precipitation

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Showing the forecasted Days 1 – 5 Cumulative precipitation and Day’s 6 – 10, Day’s 8 – 16 and Weeks 3 – 4 Outlooks

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Cumulative Days 1 – 5	Days 6- 10

Days 8 – 14	Weeks 3 – 4

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Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This graphic updates on Tuesdays)

Now More Detail for the Western Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans

Below are three maps that summarize the situation for the Atlantic, Eastern and Central Pacific. Additional information can be accessed by clicking HERE

Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico

The Eastern Pacific

The Central Pacific

Repeating that updates on individual named storms can be obtained here.

And the Western Pacific

Now to our More Detailed Weather Report

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 3-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases, it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA’s latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Thinking about clockwise movements around High-Pressure Systems and counterclockwise movements around Low-Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

Day 3 Above, 6 Below	Day 4 Above,7 Below	Day 5 Above.

The above is the day by day projected pattern of highs and lows for Day 3 through 7. Earlier we show the pattern for Days 1 and 2.

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events.

In and of themselves, Atmospheric Rivers are not a definitive predictor of extreme weather but it shows where concentrated “rivers” of moist air are forecast to be impacting North America and that is part of the equation for severe weather.

https://econcurrents.com/wp-admin/_wp_link_placeholder

This view provides a better view of the Northeast, the Antilles and also Europe.

Here are the short-term precipitation forecasts. First the cumulative for Days 1 – 3

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 5

This represents five days of precipitation rather than three days as shown in the earlier graphic.

Then cumulative for Days 1 – 7

The areas that have cumulative seven-day precipitation increase. You can see where QPF is accumulating.

World Forecast

Forecast for Day 6 (Currently Set for Day 6 but the reader can change that)

World Weather Forecast produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Unfortunately, I do not know how to extract the control panel and embed it into my report so that you could use the tool within my report. But if you visit it Click Here and you will be able to use the tool to view temperature or many other things for THE WORLD. It can forecast out for a week. Pretty cool. Return to this report by using the “Back Arrow” usually found top left corner of your screen to the left of the URL Box. It may require hitting it a few times depending on how deep you are into the BOM tool. Below are the current worldwide precipitation and temperature forecasts for six days out. They will auto-update and be current for Day 6 whenever you view them. If you want the forecast for a different day Click Here

I mostly rely on the reader to interpret world maps that update frequently.

Again, please remember this graphic updates every six hours so the diurnal pattern can confuse the reader.

Now Precipitation

Surface Pressure & Rainfall over Globe at Wed Sep 26 06:00:00 2018 UTC

This is a forecast for one particular day (Day 6). But it shows the surface Highs and the Lows which is useful information.

Month to Date Information

Temperature

Precipitation

Month to date Temperature can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

Month to date Precipitation can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPNormUS.png

Daily Short-Term and Intermediate Term Weather Forecast – July 4, 2022