This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jan 21 2025
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 21 2025 – 12Z Thu Jan 23 2025…Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chill values to linger for much
of the South and eastern U.S. through mid-week……Rare winter storm to bring heavy snow as well as areas of sleet and
freezing rain to the Gulf Coast and Southeast with widespread travel
impacts expected……Extremely Critical Risk of fire weather for southern California will
continue into Tuesday…A bitterly cold airmass will remain in place for much of the South and
eastern U.S. over the next couple of days following an Arctic frontal
passage over the holiday weekend. Forecast temperatures on Tuesday will be
upwards of 20-30 degrees below January averages for most locations with
highs ranging from the single digits and teens in the Midwest, the teens
and 20s in the Northeast, and the 20s and 30s across the central/southern
Plains and Southeast. Many record lows are possible Wednesday morning,
especially along the Gulf Coast and into the Tennessee Valley. Sub-zero
wind chills will continue for the central/southern Plains and Ohio Valley,
and may expand into the Mid-Atlantic and Mid-Mississippi Valley through
Wednesday. After another brutal morning with dangerous wind chills
reaching 30 to 55 degrees below zero, portions of the northern Plains will
see a return to relatively warmer, more typical January temperatures in
the 20s and 30s by Tuesday afternoon as downsloping air from the Rockies
spreads eastward across the region. These temperatures will reach the
Upper Midwest by Wednesday, while temperatures will also moderate into the
40s and 50s for western portions of the central/southern Plains.The combination of this Arctic air reaching the Gulf Coast and a
developing low pressure system over the Gulf will lead to a rare,
significant winter storm for the Gulf Coast and Southeast the next couple
of days. A historic snowfall is possible along the Gulf Coast, with
snowfall rates of 1″/hour or more possible from eastern Texas through the
western Florida Panhandle. This may produce snowfall totals as much as
3-6″ for the I-10 corridor, including the cities of Houston, New Orleans,
Mobile, and Pensacola. A combination of heavy snow, sleet, and freezing
rain is expected further east into Georgia, northern Florida, and the
eastern Carolinas. This storm may lead to major highway and air traffic
disruptions, including possible road closures and flight cancellations,
which may continue for several days even after the snowfall ends. Power
outages are also possible and will exacerbate the threat from the frigid
temperatures.Unfortunately, dangerous fire weather conditions look to continue through
at least mid-week for southern California with very strong offshore flow
and low humidity in place. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an
Extremely Critical Risk of fire weather (level 3/3) for the regional
mountains around the LA Basin as wind gusts may reach 70-100 mph. A
Critical Risk (level 2/3) is also in place for the regional valleys and
coastal regions with gusts of 50-80 mph expected. A Critical Risk
continues for the mountains Wednesday. Elsewhere in the West, conditions
will be dry, with generally mild high temperatures. Forecast highs range
from the 40s and 50s for the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, the 50s
and 60s in California, and the 60s and 70s in the Desert Southwest.
Morning lows will be a bit chilly, however, and may drop close to freezing
for more sensitive areas of the Desert Southwest and the central
California Valleys.Elsewhere, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across
Florida. Bands of heavy lake effect snow will continue the next couple of
days for favorable downwind locations of the Great Lakes with persistent
northwesterly flow in place. A clipper system dropping south from Canada
into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will bring some snow showers
through mid-week.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code. If the Hazards Outlook is not updated click here but remember it does not update during the weekend.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
