This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Dec 17 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 17 2024 – 12Z Thu Dec 19 2024…Another Atmospheric River to bring heavy coastal rains and high
elevation mountain snow to the Northwest……Unsettled, wet weather expected for most of the eastern U.S.
Wednesday……Periods of snow for the Northern Plains through mid-week with heavier
accumulations most likely Wednesday night……Much above average temperatures expected for most of the lower 48 into
mid-week…Yet another Pacific system will help to usher in a wave of Pacific
moisture/Atmospheric River into the Pacific Northwest and inland over the
northern Great Basin/Rockies Tuesday. A more northerly track will help to
focus the heaviest lower elevation rainfall along the coastal ranges of
northern Oregon and Washington State, with heavy high elevation mountain
snow for the northern Cascades. Some moderate snow accumulations will also
be possible into the northern Great Basin and northern/central Rockies,
aided in part by a leading wave departing the region early this morning.
Lower elevation inland locations can expect a wintry mix of rain and snow,
with some freezing rain possible to the east of the Cascades in
Washington. Precipitation chances should come down through the day
Wednesday for the Pacific Northwest while lingering longer in the northern
Rockies.A lingering frontal boundary will help to trigger some showers and
thunderstorms over portions of the Southern Plains east into the Lower
Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio Valleys through the day Tuesday. An
approaching upper-level wave will help to reinforce the boundary overnight
Tuesday and enhance moist, southerly flow from the Gulf, leading to
increasing storm coverage and locally heavy rainfall. The boundary will
push eastward as a cold front towards the East Coast through the day
Wednesday spreading showers and storms into the Southeast and coastal
Northeast. Colder air in place to the north over the interior Northeast
will lead to snow showers with some light to moderate accumulations for
higher mountain elevations.A quick moving upper-level wave will bring some snow showers to portions
of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest today with some light accumulations
possible, especially from central South Dakota east through southern
Minnesota. These light snow showers will spread eastward into the Great
Lakes Wednesday. Then, another more potent wave will approach from the
west during the day Wednesday leading to lee cyclogenesis over the
northern High Plains and helping to consolidate/strengthen a surface
frontal system. This will lead to enhanced lift over the Northern Plains
and a quick developing and potentially intense band of snowfall by
Wednesday evening. Snow totals of 2-4″ can be expected with locally
heavier amounts possible through Thursday morning. Some mixed
precipitation with light ice accumulations will be possible as well.Elsewhere, persistent shower and thunderstorm chances will continue for
Florida, particularly along the Atlantic Coast. Some intense downpours
will be possible Tuesday with an isolated threat of some flooding in the
urban areas of South Florida. Most of the country will continue to see
well above average temperatures through at least mid-week. Forecast highs
Tuesday range from the 40s and 50s in the interior West and New England;
the 50s and 60s for the West Coast, central Plains, Ohio Valley, and
Mid-Atlantic; and 60s and 70s for the Southwest, southern Plains, and
Southeast. A cold front will bring some cooler, more seasonable
temperatures to the Plains Wednesday as highs fall into the 40s and 50s.
One region that will remain much colder will be the Northern Plains/Upper
Midwest, with most highs only into the teens and 20s.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
