This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Dec 14 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 14 2024 – 12Z Mon Dec 16 2024…Atmospheric River continues to bring very heavy rain with the potential
for flooding, heavy mountain snow, and gusty winds to central/northern
California Saturday……Heavy mountain snow forecast for portions of the Great Basin and
northern Rockies Saturday……Wintry mix including accumulating freezing rain continues for portions
of the Upper Midwest Saturday, spreading into the central Appalachians
Sunday…A Pacific storm system and accompanying strong flow of
moisture/Atmospheric River continues inland over the West this morning
(Saturday) bringing heavy rainfall, mountain snow, and gusty winds to
central/northern California and the Pacific Northwest. The heaviest
rainfall will continue to focus on portions of central/northern California
through Saturday morning where rainfall rates of 0.5″ to 1″ per hour will
lead to an additional few inches of rainfall over already saturated
ground. The greatest potential for flooding will be around the greater Bay
Area where a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in effect.
Heavy snowfall will also continue for higher mountain elevations of the
Coastal Ranges and Sierra Nevada, generally over 5000 feet, where Winter
Storm Warnings have been issued for storm total snowfall of 1-3 feet.
Winter Weather Advisories are also in effect further north into the
Cascades where storm total snowfall of 8-12″, locally 18″, can be
expected. Gusty winds also continue this morning, particularly along the
coast, but all hazardous impacts from the system should begin to taper off
through Saturday afternoon.The system will push further inland through the day Saturday, spreading
moisture and precipitation chances across the Great Basin and Northern
Rockies. A mix of rain and snow can be expected at lower elevations,
though any snow accumulations should remain limited. Heavier snow is
forecast in the mountains, particularly from central Idaho into western
Wyoming, where Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for snowfall of 5-10″,
locally 12″+. Precipitation chances will spread eastward into the northern
High Plains by Saturday night with a wintry mix expected. Some light ice
accretions will be possible through the day Sunday. Some gusty winds are
also likely along the Front Range of the Rockies as the system pushes out
onto the Plains.Further east, an upper-level shortwave/accompanying surface frontal system
will help to trigger showers and thunderstorms across the Ohio, Middle
Missouri, and Lower Mississippi Valleys Saturday, with some moderate to
locally heavy rainfall possible. Storms will likely linger into Sunday
along a trailing frontal boundary, though with lighter amounts expected.
More impactful weather will continue further north as warmer, moist air
overrides colder air at the surface leading to a wintry mix across the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Snow/sleet accumulations should remain
light, but freezing rain is also expected, particularly over eastern Iowa.
An Ice Storm Warning remains in effect through Saturday afternoon for
totals potentially exceeding 0.25″ and leading to tree and power line
damage. The system will continue east on Sunday bringing a wintry mix into
the Southern Appalachians. Similar to Saturday, snow/sleet accumulations
should generally remain light, but some ice accretions over 0.1″ will be
possible.Elsewhere, some showers and thunderstorms can be expected this weekend
along the Atlantic Coast of the Southeast and Florida with a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary in place. Additionally, after a brief
break late Saturday/early Sunday, another system over the Pacific will
bring increasing precipitation chances back to the Pacific Northwest by
Sunday evening. Most of the country will see high temperatures at or above
average this weekend as conditions moderate following a cold frontal
passage across the South and with an upper-level ridge passing over the
central/western U.S. ahead of the next Pacific system. Some of the warmest
temperatures will be in the Southern Plains/Texas with highs in the 60s,
70s, and even some low 80s. Otherwise, temperatures generally range from
the 30s and 40s from the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin east through
the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast; the 50s and 60s for
California, the central Plains, Ohio Valley, and the South; and 70s for
the Desert Southwest and Florida.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
