This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 01 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 01 2024 – 12Z Sun Nov 03 2024…Threat of a heavy rain and severe weather event increasing across the
central to southern Plains throughout the weekend……Mountain snow will overspread from the Pacific Northwest into much of
the Intermountain West over the next couple of days with heavy rain today
near the Pacific Northwest coast……Much above average temperatures expected across large portions of the
central to eastern U.S. with little rain in sight along the East Coast…A trailing cold front in connection with a low pressure system currently
moving east across the Great Lakes toward New England will bring a chance
of rain into the eastern U.S. on this first day of November following an
exceptionally dry October for this part of the country. However, it
appears that the rain will not progress much beyond the Appalachians today
as another day of warm and dry conditions is forecast for the East Coast.
In fact, the warm temperatures into the 70s early this morning have
already challenged high temperature records for November in upstate New
York. In addition, record high morning lows are possible this morning
from the Mid-Atlantic into New England and record high temperatures are
possible Friday afternoon from near New York City to northern Maine. The
cold front will bring gusty winds and cool temperatures into the Northeast
by tonight and into the weekend. While less record temperatures are
forecast over the next few days across the eastern two-thirds of the
country, widespread above average temperatures expected across large
portions of the central to eastern U.S.A high pressure system will build across the Northeast during the weekend
and will sustain the dry conditions down the Eastern Seaboard for the
first few days of November. Attention will then focus across the central
and southern Plains as a rather significant heavy rain and severe weather
event will be emerging throughout the weekend. As moist air from the Gulf
of Mexico returns and streams northward into the southern Plains behind
the high pressure system, a deepening upper-level trough will be moving
through the western U.S. This trough will bring another round of heavy
rain near the coast for Pacific Northwest today before spreading more
mountain snow across the Intermountain West through the weekend.
Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will then interact with the
returning Gulf moisture over the southern Plains and lift the moisture
over a warm front. It appears that moderate to heavy rain associated with
organized thunderstorms will first develop over the southern High Plains
tonight. The thunderstorms and heavy rain will then expand northeastward
into the central Plains through the weekend. A few inches of heavy rain
with locally higher amounts is forecast across the southern Plains, with
the heaviest rains expected across central Oklahoma. Similar to many
areas of the Lower 48, this region is experiencing moderate to extreme
drought conditions. While this round of heavy rain will help aleviate the
drought, the high rainfall rates will also bring an increasing threat of
flash flooding. Please keep abreast of the latest forecast updates on
this upcoming heavy rain/severe weather event across the central to
southern Plains.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
