This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 31 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024 – 12Z Sat Nov 02 2024…Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Southern Cascades and Northern
Intermountain Region, with a second area over parts of the Upper Midwest
on Thursday……Temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees above average over parts of the
Lower Great Lakes/eastern Ohio Valley and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic……There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley and a Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley on
Thursday…A wave of low pressure over the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley will move
northeastward to Southeastern Canada by Friday. The trailing front moves
off the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday evening, while the western
end of the boundary slowly moves northward as a stationary front over
north-central Texas by Saturday. Ahead of the front, temperatures will be
20 to 25 degrees above average over parts of the Lower Great Lakes/eastern
Ohio Valley and the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.On Thursday, moist air flowing northward over the Plains will extend into
the Great Lakes, creating showers and strong to severe thunderstorms ahead
of the front over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of
severe thunderstorms over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi
Valley through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.Furthermore, moderate to heavy rain will develop along the front over
parts of Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Therefore, through
Friday morning, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi
Valleys. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash
flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.Moreover, the wave of low pressure will pull cold air over parts of the
Upper Midwest, producing moderate to heavy snow over parts of Minnesota,
extreme northern Wisconsin, and portions of the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan. Furthermore, rain develops along the front from Central
Appalachians to the Northeast on Friday morning, tapering off to scattered
rain over parts of the Northeast by Friday evening. Also, on Friday,
onshore flow off the Atlantic will produce scattered rain over parts of
Florida.On Friday, the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms moves westward to
the Southern High Plains as upper-level dynamics move over Southern
California. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains from Friday
into Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal
threat of tornadoesFurther, the showers and thunderstorms will create moderate to heavy rain
over parts of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains from Friday to Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience
rapid runoff with heavy rain.Meanwhile, another front over the Pacific Northwest and California will
move inland and dissipate by Thursday evening. On Thursday, the snow will
become moderate to heavy over parts of the Southern Cascades and Northern
Intermountain Region. Rain will continue over the Northwest and
Northern/Central California through early Saturday. Light snow will
continue over parts of the higher elevations of the Cascades, Sierra
Nevada Mountains, Northern Intermountain Region, and Northern Rockies.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
