This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 30 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 30 2024 – 12Z Fri Nov 01 2024…Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Southern Cascades and Northern
Intermountain Region with a second area over parts of the Upper Midwest on
Thursday……Temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees above average over parts of the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley……There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains on Wednesday…A wave of low pressure along a front over the Southern High Plains will
move northeastward to eastern Quebec, Canada, by Friday. Ahead of the
front, temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees above average over parts of
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. A warm front over Northern New England will
move northeastward into Southeastern Canada by Thursday. Ahead of the warm
front, rain will develop over parts of Northern New England, ending by
Wednesday evening.On Wednesday, moist air flowing northward over the Plains will extend into
the Upper Great Lakes, creating showers and severe thunderstorms will
develop ahead of the front over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and
Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Central Plains through
Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.Moreover, southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create scattered
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Western Gulf Coast from
Tuesday into Wednesday. Similarly, easterly flow off the Atlantic will
produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of Florida through Thursday
morning. In addition, there is an increased threat of EF2 � EF5
tornadoes over the areas.Furthermore, moderate to heavy rain will develop along the front over
parts of the Mississippi Valley and the Central/Southern Plains.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Mississippi Valley and parts of the
Central/Southern Plains through Thursday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that
experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.On Thursday, the threat of severe thunderstorms from the Great Lakes to
the Lower Mississippi Valley will decrease to strong to severe
thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5)
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes to the Lower
Mississippi Valley from Thursday into Friday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.Further, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over parts
of the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys from Thursday to Friday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. In addition,
onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic will produce showers
and thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Western Gulf Coast and Florida.Moreover, the wave of low pressure will pull cold air over parts of the
Upper Midwest, producing moderate to heavy snow over parts of Minnesota,
extreme northern Wisconsin, and the western portions of the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan. All these areas will be near Lake Superior on
Thursday, tapering off by Friday.Meanwhile, another front will come onshore over the Pacific Northwest and
California on Wednesday, dissipating by Thursday evening. From late
Wednesday morning into Friday, the system will produce rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Northwest into Northern/Central
California. On Thursday, the snow will become moderate to heavy over parts
of the Southern Cascades and Northern Intermountain Region.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
