This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 04 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 – 12Z Sun Oct 06 2024…Record-breaking heat remains across California and the Southwest
through this weekend, while also building into the central United States
on Saturday……Strong winds and dangerous fire weather concerns forecast throughout
the northern Great Basin, northern Rockies, and into the northern/central
Plains……Locally heavy rain possible across the immediate Gulf Coast as
unsettled weather develops in the Gulf of Mexico…A Fall heatwave will continue into the weekend over portions of the Desert
Southwest and central/southern California as a persistent trend of
upper-ridging over the region remains in place. Numerous
record-tying/breaking highs are forecast as temperatures soar once again
into the upper 90s to 100s. Heat-related advisories/warnings are in place
as the heat remains at levels dangerous to anyone without adequate cooling
or hydration. While not quite as hot, temperatures will still be
well-above average Friday elsewhere across the Interior West, with highs
well into the 80s for many locations across the northern/central Rockies
and Great Basin. A cold front will bring cooler, more Fall-like
temperatures to the northern Great Basin/Rockies on Saturday. Higher
heights will also expand eastward over the central United States on
Saturday helping to spread much above average temperatures into portions
of the central/southern Plains and Upper Midwest. Forecast highs in the
80s to low 90s in the Upper Midwest and as high as the mid-90s in the
central Plains are upwards of 20 degrees above average, with
record-tying/breaking highs possible here as well.A fast-moving upper-level wave/accompanying surface frontal system will
pass along the northern tier of the West and into the central U.S. over
the next couple of days. Some moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be
possible over the Pacific Northwest on Friday, with some lighter showers
into the northern Rockies. Additional showers/storms will accompany the
system as it reaches the Upper Great Lakes later Saturday and into the
early morning hours Sunday. However, the bigger story will be widespread
gusty winds and high fire danger with the fast moving system as it passes
through the northern Great Basin/Rockies Friday and into the northern High
Plains Saturday. Wind-related watches and warnings have been issued as
gusts higher than 60 mph can be expected, leading to risk of blowing
debris, potential property damage, and isolated power outages, as well as
difficult travel conditions especially for high-profile vehicles. In
addition, the gusty winds and very dry conditions ahead of the approaching
cold front with the system will bring an increased threat for wildfires.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Critical Risk (level 2/3) of
Fire Weather over portions of the northern Great Basin and central/eastern
Wyoming Friday, and the central Rockies into the central Plains on
Saturday. Much of the rest of the region is under Red Flag Warnings and
Fire Weather Watches.Enhanced tropical moisture along the Gulf Coast will lead to periods of
moderate to locally heavy showers for the next few days. The lack of a
focusing system/boundary and scattered nature of the storms currently
suggests a low risk for flash flooding, but an isolated instance or two of
flash flooding cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, some light to moderate
showers can be expected with a cold frontal passage through the Northeast
late Friday/early Saturday. High temperatures will generally be at to a
bit above average for the eastern U.S., with widespread 70s to the north
and 80s in the South.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
