This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 01 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 01 2024 – 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024…There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Florida on Tuesday……There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of the Northern
High Plains on Tuesday……There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest…Upper-level energy over the Mid-Atlantic will slowly advance off the
Eastern Seaboard by late Tuesday night. Lingering moisture and upper-level
energy will produce moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida
producing areas of moderate to heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Florida
through Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.Meanwhile, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern
Plains moves eastward to the Northeast and weakens. On Tuesday, the front
will produce light rain over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and by Tuesday
afternoon, rain will expand along the boundary from the Ohio Valley to the
Tennessee Valley. Light rain moves into the Lower Great Lakes/Central
Appalachians by Wednesday and into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday
evening. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
Florida from Tuesday into Thursday.Further, upper-level ridging over the Northern Intermountain Region into
the Northern Rockies will create warm air associated with down-sloping
air, strong gust wind, and dry fuels, prompting a Critical Risk of fire
weather over parts of the North High Plains on Tuesday.Elsewhere, a front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest will move
inland to the Great Lakes by Thursday. The system will produce scattered
showers over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday.Moreover, the upper-level ridge over the Four Corners Region will create
high temperatures over Southern California and the Southwest, ranging from
the upper 90s to 110s. Low temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low
90s, providing little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures
have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest.Record-breaking heat is expected across portions of the Southwest.
Remember, Heat is the Deadliest Weather Phenomenon in the U.S.! People
spending more time outdoors or in a building without cooling are at an
increased risk of heat-related illness. Visit www.weather.gov/safety/heat
and check local media and government websites for cooling center
information.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Before we get started on this, I want to include the key graphic from the Updated Four Season Outlook that we discussed HERE yesterday.
The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
