This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Sep 20 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 20 2024 – 12Z Sun Sep 22 2024…Severe thunderstorm threat will shift from the upper Midwest this
morning to the southern High Plains by Saturday night/early Sunday……Rainy weather lingers over southeastern New England…
…A moderate to heavy rain event developing this weekend from the central
High Plains eastward toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley……Much above average temperatures through the mid-section of the country
and into Ohio Valley and Great Lakes…A cold/occluded frontal system clashing with a weak warm front will
continue to support formation of strong to severe thunderstorms across the
upper Midwest early this morning. These thunderstorms will generally lose
intensity as they move into the Great Lakes through the rest of today.
The relatively fast motion of the front will limit rainfall amounts.
However, there is still the potential for isolated heavy totals, that
could result in localized flooding, especially over urbanized regions.The deep low pressure system associated with the fronts are moving farther
away into central Canada. There will not be much temperature relief in
the wake of the fronts from the much above average temperatures currently
stretching across the Plains into the mid- to upper Mississippi Valley and
Great Lakes. These regions will continue to see some late summer heat
over the next two days. An Alberta clipper will take shape and will then
usher in a fresh dose of cool air from western Canada through the northern
Rockies followed by northern Plains this weekend.There is not expected to be large areas of heavy rains across the lower 48
over the next two days. Exceptions will be across southeastern New
England where a slow-moving low off the southeast New England coast will
keep conditions wet Friday and Saturday. Showery weather will also likely
to persist across South Florida where tropical moisture will bring the
potential for localized heavy rains and isolated urban flash flooding from
daily thunderstorms.A strong mid to upper level low moving onshore into the central to
southern California coast will be pressing eastward for the next couple of
days across the Southwest and into the Four Corners region. There is not
expected to be any large areas of precipiation associated with this strong
mid to upper level low across central to southern California into the
Southwest. However, during Saturday, higher levels of moisture are
expected to be transported northward ahead of the mid to upper level low
into the central to southern Rockies and southern High Plains as the
moisture begins to interact with a surge of cool air from the north. This
interaction will initiate an increasingly large precipitation event, first
across portions of the central to Southern Rockies on Saturday, then
expanding eastward Saturday evening/night into the central Plains and
lower Missouri Valley, and then toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley early on
Sunday. In addition, the potential of severe thunderstorms will increase
later on Saturday into early Sunday over the southern High Plains ahead of
a cold front and a dry line. In addition, cold air behind the front will
change the rain to wet snow over the Colorado Rockies early on Sunday.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
