This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Sep 19 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 19 2024 – 12Z Sat Sep 21 2024…Severe thunderstorms possible in the eastern Plains and Upper Midwest
today……Late-summer heat forecast from the southern/central Plains to the Upper
Midwest…The main weather story for the next couple of days will be a strong
occluded low and frontal system bringing impactful weather to the Plains
and Midwest. The central low will gradually lift north into southern
Canada today while it pushes a strong cold front across the eastern Plains
and Upper Midwest. Precipitation will taper off in Montana and the
northern Plains by this afternoon as the low moves farther away, and the
focus for precipitation will shift to areas ahead of the cold front. A
line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop ahead of the cold
front today, and a wave of upper level energy moving over the Upper
Midwest will provide support for scattered severe thunderstorm development
this afternoon into tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted
portions of the Upper Midwest and eastern portions of the central and
southern Plains with a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/4).
Potential storm hazards will include a couple of tornadoes, large hail,
and damaging wind gusts. Additionally, locally heavy rain in stronger
storms may result in isolated instances of flash flooding in the Upper
Midwest.Showers and storms ahead of the cold front will push east into the Great
Lakes region on Friday, but the front will weaken as it becomes separated
from its parent low in Canada. Shower and storm chances will also linger
along the eastern seaboard as a low pressure system strengthens offshore
in the western Atlantic. The main low will remain parked southeast of Cape
Cod over the next few days while a slow-moving cold front extends
southwest to the Florida Peninsula. Strong gusty winds will be possible
over the coastal waters in the vicinity of the central low, which has
prompted the issuance of Small Craft and Coastal Flood Advisories along
portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coasts and Gale Warnings for
the offshore waters south of Cape Cod and Long Island. This system will
finally pull away from the East Coast by Sunday, which will result in
decreasing winds and precipitation chances.Calmer weather is expected for the West today, with some lingering showers
and storms under an upper low in the Great Basin and California, then the
next round of unsettled weather will arrive with a southward moving
frontal system Friday and Saturday. Precipitation will spread from the
Northwest and northern Rockies south to the Four Corners Region by
Saturday, and some wintry precipitation will be possible in the higher
elevations of the Intermountain West. Precipitation chances will also
expand again across the Plains and portions of the Midwest late Friday
into Saturday as the frontal system pushes east of the Rockies.Temperature-wise, late-summer heat will stick around in the Central U.S.
through the end of this week. Warm southerly flow will keep high
temperatures in the 80s and 90s from the southern/central Plains to the
Upper Midwest. Some areas in the southern Plains could see near record
highs today and Friday as highs approach 100 degrees. Above average
temperatures are also forecast for the Great Lakes and interior Northeast
underneath an upper level ridge. Temperatures in the West will remain
below normal over the next few days in the wake of the Plains system and
the upcoming late week frontal system. Temperatures in the East and
Southeast will be near normal with highs generally in the 70s and 80s.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
