This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Aug 30 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Aug 30 2024 – 12Z Sun Sep 01 2024…Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances from the Plains to East
Coast to start the holiday weekend, producing heavy rain and severe
weather...…Heavy rain and scattered flash flooding possible along the Louisiana
and upper Texas Gulf Coasts……Record heat continues across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the
Southern Appalachians today with relief on tap for the weekend……Much above average temperatures build across the Pacific Northwest,
northern Great Basin and into the northern Rockies…A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is expected over central and
eastern portions of the country heading into the first half of the holiday
weekend ahead of an approaching cold front. Today (Friday), storm chances
will stretch from the Lower Great Lakes southwest through the Middle
Mississippi Valley and into the Southern Plains/Rockies. Plentiful
moisture and instability ahead of the front will lead to some more robust
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall, with some isolated flash
flooding possible. In addition, an accompanying upper-level trough
overhead will bring some higher winds over the Great Lakes, leading to
stronger shear and the potential for some severe weather. There is a
targeted Slight Risk (level 2/5) from the Storm Prediction Center over
portions of eastern Michigan mainly for the risk of damaging winds. On
Saturday, the front will progress further south and eastward into the Ohio
Valley and Northeast while slowing in progress and becoming nearly
stationary with southwestward extent into the Southern Plains. A broader
area of severe weather is expected over portions of the northern/central
Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic as the upper-level trough digs southward
over the region. Damaging winds will once again be the primary threat. In
addition, isolated flash flooding will remain possible, with the potential
that a higher threat may materialize given the slowing frontal
progression.Further south, another more concentrated area of heavier rainfall is
expected to continue along portions of the western Louisiana and upper
Texas Gulf Coasts as an area of low pressure lingers in the vicinity.
Higher rain rates and repeated rounds of storms may lead to locally higher
rain totals of 2-4″+ over Friday and Saturday. A Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) has been included for both days for the potential of
some scattered flash flooding. Daily thunderstorms are also forecast over
the central/southern Florida Peninsula.One more day of excessive heat is forecast over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
and southern Appalachians today as temperatures soar once again into the
mid- to upper 90s. High humidity may bring head indices into the low 100s.
A few record-tying/breaking highs will also be possible. The approaching
cold front and increasing storm chances/cloud cover will finally bring
some relief on Saturday as highs drop into the 80s across the Middle
Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys, with upper 80s to low 90s for the
Upper Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Elsewhere, highs will be particularly
mild north of the frontal boundary across the northern Mid-Atlantic and
New England, with 70s and even some upper 60s expected today. Temperatures
will warm up a few degrees as the boundary lifts northward as a warm front
on Saturday. Conditions will also be well below average over portions of
the Southern Plains to the northwest of the frontal boundary, with low to
mid-80s forecast. Areas ahead of the front from Texas into the Southeast
and the southern Mid-Atlantic will generally be in the upper 80s to low
90s.In the wake of the departing trough to the east, an upper-level ridge over
the Pacific Coast will shift inland, helping to focus hot, much above
average temperatures over the northern tier of the West. Forecast highs on
Friday for the northern Great Basin and Pacific Northwest will range
between the low to mid-90s for most locations. Then, on Saturday, the heat
will intensify as well as expand into the northern Rockies, with many
highs in the mid- to upper 90s, 10-20 degrees above average. Heat
Advisories have been issued for much of the northern Great Basin given the
heightened risk of heat-related illnesses, and extra care should be taken
to seek shaded areas and remain hydrated this holiday weekend. Elsewhere
in the West, temperatures will generally be near or just above average,
with 60s and 70s along the coast, 80s to low 90s for the Great Basin,
mid-90s for the central California Valleys, and 100s in the Desert
Southwest. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible along a
lingering frontal boundary through the central/southern Rockies and into
the Southwest.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
