This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 15 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Aug 15 2024 – 12Z Sat Aug 17 2024…Flash flooding and severe weather threat continues over the Midwest the
next couple of days……Potentially dangerous heat anticipated across the southern Plains,
lower Mississippi Valley, and Gulf Coast…A low pressure/frontal system traversing the center of the country
continues to help trigger rounds of showers and thunderstorms leading to
the threat of some flash flooding and severe weather. The low pressure
center is forecast to gradually push eastward through the Upper Midwest
today and reach the Great Lakes by the end of the week. A broad warm
sector supported by plentiful moisture, instability, and deep-layer shear
will allow for storms to potentially turn severe and contain heavy
rainfall throughout Missouri, Illinois, and into the lower Ohio Valley.
Storms should redevelop during the afternoon, increasing in coverage into
the evening, with a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall in
effect given the threat for some intense downpours and potential training
convection leading to instances of flash flooding. A Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe weather similarly covers the chance for some instances of
large hail and damaging winds. The system will push into the Lower Great
Lakes and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Friday and Saturday, with storms
likely to spread as far east as the Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Some
chances of isolated flash flooding and severe weather are forecast.Heat will remain the major weather story throughout much of the
south-central U.S. into the beginning of this weekend and likely beyond.
Widespread highs into the upper 90s and triple digits are forecast to span
from the Southwest to the central Gulf Coast. Elevated humidity levels
will soar heat indices up to around 110 degrees for areas outside of the
Southwest and southern High Plains. However, actual high temperatures in
these more arid regions will be higher and well into the triple digits for
some locations. Low temperatures are anticipated to only drop into the
upper 70s and 80s for many locations, which could break several daily
records. This level of heat can affect anyone without effective cooling
and/or adequate hydration. Therefore, it is imperative to follow proper
heat safety and check on vulnerable individuals.Elsewhere, some showers and storms will continue over New England as an
upper-level low churns over Nova Scotia. To the south, portions of
central/south Florida will also see scattered storm chances the next
couple of days as a cold front slowly pushes through. Some thunderstorms
will also be possible with a shortwave passing over portions of the
northern Great Basin today and into the northern Rockies by tonight.
Monsoonal moisture and storm chances are set to return to the Southwest
and central Great Basin by Saturday, where isolated flash flooding is the
greatest concern. Forecast high temperatures are expected to generally be
around average along the East Coast with mid- to upper 80s expected. Areas
of the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest behind the passing storm system will be
cooler with highs in the 70s. More temperatures near or above average are
expected over the northern/central Plains with highs in the 80s and 90s.
Highs across the northern tier of the West will remain below average, with
70s for the Pacific Northwest and low 80s into the northern Great Basin,
warming closer to average into the central Great Basin with mid-80s to low
90s.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
