This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Aug 12 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Aug 12 2024 – 12Z Wed Aug 14 2024…Unsettled weather with chances for scattered flash flooding and
damaging wind gusts stretches from the Intermountain West to the
Mid-Mississippi Valley……Dangerous heat builds across the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast this
week……Critical Fire Weather and poor air quality remains throughout parts of
the Great Basin and Northwest…An active August weather pattern is expected to continue through at least
midweek thanks in part to a stationary boundary stretching from the
Southeast to the central Plains and an upper-level trough moving from the
West Coast to the northern Rockies. Organized complexes of showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to ride along and just north of the stationary
front today from eastern Colorado to the Ozarks, with the main weather
hazard associated with intense rainfall rates and scattered flash
flooding. The heavy rainfall threat is then forecast to slide eastward
each day this week, centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday
and Midwest by Wednesday. These areas coincide with a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of Excessive Rainfall. Additionally, some of the stronger storms will
have the potential to produce isolated hail and the potential for
localized damaging wind gusts. Thunderstorms will also develop throughout
parts of the Southwest, Intermountain West, and Rockies through Tuesday,
producing an isolated flash flood threat for these regions as well.For the Southeast, the lingering frontal boundary will produce another few
days with scattered thunderstorm chances overlapping with saturated ground
conditions, particularly over the eastern Carolinas. Urban corridors and
locations with poor drainage (even more degraded than usual due to recent
heavy rain and flooding associated with T.S. Debby) will be most at risk.
Residents and visitors are advised to have multiple ways of receiving
warnings and never drive into flooded roadways.While most of the country enjoys a break from the oppressive summer heat,
much of the southern Plains and Gulf Coast States will experience a
warming trend back to uncomfortable conditions this week. Widespread highs
into the upper 90s are forecast to stretch from the southern High Plains
to the Florida Panhandle, with triple digits possible over portions of the
Lone Star State. When combined with elevated humidity levels, heat indices
may reach up to around the 110 degree mark. Overnight temperatures will
not offer much relief as lows only dip into the upper 70s and low 80s.
This level of heat affects anyone without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration as denoted by Major to Extreme HeatRisk stretching from
Oklahoma and Texas to the Gulf Coast and much of Florida by Wednesday.Gusty winds combined with dry terrain are forecast to create Critical Fire
Weather across parts of northwest Nevada today. Meanwhile, ongoing
wildfires will also continue to pump additional smoke into the atmosphere
and produce poor air quality for much of the region.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article.
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6– 10
8– 14
3– 4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
