This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Aug 09 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Aug 09 2024 – 12Z Sun Aug 11 2024…Dangerous flooding and severe weather continue as Debby accelerates
through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today……Below average temperatures persist across the Northern to Central
Plains, Upper to Mid Mississippi Valley……Above average temperatures continue across the West into the South, but
with less record highs compared to previous days……Elevated fire weather conditions and poor air quality continue across
Great Basin…After a slow trek through the Carolinas over the last 24 hours, Debby is
simultaneously weakening and accelerating northeastward along the spine of
the Blue Ridge. Unfortunately, even in Debby’s weakened state, dangerous
flash flooding and severe weather will continue through tomorrow across
portions of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, Interior Northeast, and New
England. Across the Carolinas, additional heavy rainfall is expected to
batter the region today, which will exacerbate ongoing catastrophic and
considerable flash flooding as storm total rainfall approaches 15-25
inches in spots. Closer to Debby’s immediate track, 3 to 7 inches of
rainfall across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states will produce
considerable to locally catastrophic flooding impacts through tomorrow
morning. The same cells responsible for this dangerous and prolific
rainfall are also capable of producing a few tornadoes. In the short term
this morning, a few tornadoes remain possible across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic (North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland), although the risk
will shift into the Northeast (New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, and
southeast New York) later today.The northeast acceleration of Debby is in response to the large scale
closed low associated with a strong cold front stretching from the Great
Lakes, southwestward through the Plains. Below average temperatures in
the wake of this strong front already encompass the Northern to Central
Plains, Upper to Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, which will
plunge southward into portions of the Southern Plains, Ohio Valley, and
Tennessee Valley today and tomorrow. The forecast remains on track for a
few record low maximum temperatures today across portions of the Central
Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley and over northern Minnesota with
forecast high temperatures nearly 20-25 degrees below normal.In contrast, above average temperatures will continue over the next few
days across much of the West into Texas, the South, and Gulf Coast as the
front stalls out to the north. A few record highs still possible across
portions of the central to eastern Gulf Coast over the next few days,
although the number of overall record highs across the country continue to
decrease from previous days. Even with less record high potential, the
current heat has led to a swath of Heat Advisories across portions of
southeast Texas and eastward along the Gulf coast.In addition to the heat across portions of the Northwest and West, the dry
conditions, low relative humidities and gusty winds will maintain a fire
weather threat tomorrow over northern Nevada and southern Idaho. Smoke
from current fires will also continue to produce poor air quality across
the Pacific Northwest in general.To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article.
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6– 10
8– 14
3– 4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
–
I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
