This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jul 13 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jul 13 2024 – 12Z Mon Jul 15 2024…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday and Sunday……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of northern
Mid-Atlantic on Saturday……Dangerous and record-breaking heat will continue for much of the West
through Saturday, while sizzling temperatures will also begin to build
across the Central Plains and Southeast...A weak front with tropical moisture will be quasi-stationary over parts of
the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast through Sunday morning. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop along and near the boundary as the tropical
moisture produces heavy rain over parts of the Easter Seaboard. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with
these thunderstorms over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic through Sunday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas the most vulnerable.In addition, on Saturday, a front over the Northern Plains will move
across the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and extending
into the Upper Great Lakes by Monday. The boundary will produce showers
and severe thunderstorms over the region. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Plains into Upper Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there is an
increased threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots and hail
two inches or greater over parts of the Northern High Plains.Moreover, upper-level energy and tropical moisture over the Western and
Central Gulf Coast will produce showers and thunderstorms. Furthermore,
moisture streaming northward from the Gulf of California and weak
upper-level energy will aid in producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms over parts of Southern California and Southwest.On Sunday, a wave of low pressure along the front over the Upper Midwest
will move from Montana to North Dakota, creating showers and severe
thunderstorms in parts of the area. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains
into Upper Mississippi Valley from Sunday through Monday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Also, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great Lakes into parts of the
Mid-Atlantic. Furthermore, upper-level energy and tropical moisture will
produce showers and thunderstorms from parts of the Western Gulf Coast
eastward to the Southeast. Moisture over the Southwest and diurnal heating
will produce late afternoon into late evening showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and Central/Southern Rockies.Meanwhile, an upper-level subtropical high over the Great Basin/Southwest
into the Central/Southern Rockies will allow an extremely dangerous heat
wave to persist over the area. The upper-level ridging will produce a near
all-time high temperature record, and heat will continue over portions of
the Southwest through Sunday. This long-duration heat wave remains
extremely dangerous and deadly if not taken seriously. Dozens of daily
record high temperatures are forecast over much of the West through
Sunday. Hazardous heat will expand in coverage over portions of the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Southeast on Sunday and Monday.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
