This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jul 08 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jul 08 2024 – 12Z Wed Jul 10 2024…Hurricane Beryl to bring very heavy rain, damaging hurricane-force
winds and life-threatening storm surge to the Texas coast today……Extreme heat re-focuses over the Desert Southwest and interior Pacific
Northwest; more heat and humidity for the Mid-Atlantic as well…Hurricane Beryl is expected to track up into the ArkLaTex today.
Life-threatening storm surge and rip currents are likely along much of the
Texas Coast, but especially from Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass. Residents in
those areas should follow any advice given by local officials and follow
evacuation orders. Damaging hurricane-force winds are also expected for
portions of the Texas Coast around the time of Beryl’s landfall this
morning. A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Mesquite Bay to San Luis
Pass. Severe thunderstorms are likely to occur from the eastern
Texas/western Louisiana coast up through the ArkLaTex today, where a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) and embedded Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) are in
effect. Considerable flash and urban flooding are expected through tonight
across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf Coast and eastern
Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected. A Moderate
Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in
effect for eastern Texas up into the ArkLaTex for today. Please refer to
the National Hurricane Center for more information on Beryl.A deep and well entrenched upper-level ridge stationed over the West will
support the continuation of an extreme heat wave across the region early
this week. High temperatures in the upper 90s to low 110s will represent
15-30 degree anomalies. Widespread high and low temperature records will
likely be tied or broken over the next couple of days as a result of this
unusual heat. The multi-day length and record warm overnight temperatures
will continue to cause heat stress in people without adequate cooling and
hydration. The heat wave is forecast to shift from California and Oregon
north to Washington and east over the Great Basin and Arizona through
mid-week.Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms spread into the Mississippi Valley on
Tuesday as Beryl transitions into a Post-Tropical Cyclone. There’s a
Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall over portions of northern
Arkansas through southeastern Missouri, far western Kentucky,
southern/central Illinois and far western Indiana. The cold front attached
to Beryl will become quasi-stationary over portions of the central Gulf
Coast and support training rainfall on Tuesday. Thus, a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect for parts of Louisiana’s central
coastline. Heat and humidity begin to build over the Mid-Atlantic today as
the upper trough that will eventually pick up Beryl directs moisture and
warm air northward across the East Coast. Strong southerly flow and clouds
will contribute to warm overnight temperatures in the 70s. These
temperatures will likely tie or break existing records across much of the
Appalachians and East Coast through midweek.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
