This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Sat Jul 06 2024Valid 12Z Sat Jul 06 2024 – 12Z Mon Jul 08 2024
…Extremely dangerous heat continues in the West, with heat persisting in
the Eastern U.S….…Severe thunderstorms and Excessive rainfall possible for portions of
the Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley today, then the
Central/Southern Plains on Sunday……Beryl is forecast to re-intensify over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
today and threaten the western Gulf Coast of the U.S. beginning on
Sunday……Critical Fire Weather possible over portions of the Upper Great Basin
and Four Corners Regions this weekend…An amplified upper-level pattern over the CONUS will support record
breaking heat in the West, severe weather and heavy to excessive rainfall
over the Central U.S., and some more heat risk in the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast this weekend. A staunch upper ridge continues to
promote an intense, widespread and long duration heat wave across the
West. Widespread temperature records are expected to be tied or broken
this weekend with highs in the upper 90s to 110s likely up and down the
West Coast and portions of the Great Basin. These conditions will be
extremely dangerous and potentially deadly if not taken seriously. The
multi-day nature of the heat and record warm overnight temperatures will
cause heat stress to build in people without adequate cooling and
hydration. Excessive Heat Watches, Warnings and Heat Advisories are in
effect for much of the West. Hazardous heat will continue in the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast today. Heat index values will approach or
exceed 110 degrees at times. Heat Advisories stretch from upstate New York
down the East Coast to the Alabama coast. The intense heat paired with dry
windy conditions will support a Critical Risk of Fires over portions of
southern Idaho today and southern Utah on Sunday.Elsewhere, an upper-level trough stationed over the Central U.S. will
amplify and dig into the Southern Plains this weekend. At the surface, a
pair of slow moving low pressure systems will focus areas of showers and
thunderstorms across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. The Storm
Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms
across parts of the Central Plains this afternoon/evening. Isolated large
hail and severe wind gusts are expected from the Southern High Plains into
the Upper Midwest. Mid-level energy propagating atop a moist, unstable
environment and quasi-stationary front at the surface will support
convection and locally heavy rainfall from central Texas through the
Central Gulf Coast today. There’s a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (at
least 15%) over much of Louisiana. Another round of heavy rainfall could
produce heavy to excessive rainfall for parts of central Oklahoma northern
Texas and southern Kansas on Sunday. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
is in effect for the aforementioned areas. Some more scattered to isolated
storms will occur over portions of the Northeast today with potential for
isolated Flash Flooding.Tropical Storm Beryl is forecast to intensify as it moves through the
western Gulf of Mexico today. Beryl is forecast to strengthen into a
Hurricane on Sunday night before making landfall somewhere along the Texas
Coast. The exact location of Beryl’s landfall is uncertain at this point
but what’s most important is that heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm
surge are expected for much of the state’s coastline and portions of the
central Gulf Coast beginning tonight into Sunday. Please refer to the
National Hurricane Center for the latest Beryl forecast track and
intensity.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
