This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jul 05 2024Valid 12Z Fri Jul 05 2024 – 12Z Sun Jul 07 2024
…Heat is expected to intensify and spread farther up the West Coast this
weekend……Oppressive heat and humidity will shift east into the Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast today and Saturday……Excessive Rainfall possible over portions of the coastal Mid-Atlantic
down through the Carolinas on Saturday……Beryl is forecast to re-intensify over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
on Saturday and threaten southern Texas…Dangerous heat is likely to become more widespread in the West today and
Saturday. Today, temperatures will soar into the 100s and 110s over much
of California and southern Oregon. Temperatures will be 15-30 degrees
above average for much of the West Coast today. Widespread temperature
records are expected to be tied or broken. Saturday will likely shape up
to be the hottest day in this heatwave when high temperatures into the
110s will be common across California outside of the cooling effects of
the Pacific Ocean near the coast and the naturally cooler higher
elevations. Numerous record-breaking temperatures can be expected through
the next few days. Locally higher temperatures into the 120s are possible
in the typical hot spots of the Desert Southwest. The triple-digit heat
will expand northward into the Pacific Northwest and parts of the central
Great Basin, with widespread highs rising into the 90s and low 100s. The
duration of this heat is also concerning as scorching above average
temperatures are forecast to linger into next week. Heat impacts can
compound over time, therefore it is important to remain weather aware and
follow the advice of local officials. Heat Watches and Warnings are in
effect for much of the West. This level of heat throughout parts of the
Mojave Desert and Sacramento/San Joaquin valleys of California could pose
a risk to anyone if proper heat safety is not followed. It is imperative
to stay hydrated, out of direct sunlight, and in buildings with sufficient
air-conditioning when possible. It is also equally as important to check
on the safety of vulnerable friends, family, and neighbors.Meanwhile, oppressive heat and humidity will begin to shift eastward to
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast for the end of the week. High temperatures
rising into the upper 90s and low 100s are expected, with heat indices
soaring into the 110s across the lower Mississippi Valley. Warm overnight
conditions in the upper 70s and low 80s will offer little relief, leading
to a dangerous situation for those without access to adequate cooling. A
cold front entering the southern Plains is anticipated to offer cooler and
below average temperatures to Oklahoma, much of northern/western Texas,
and the Mid-South today. Above average temperatures are then anticipated
to remain confined to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic for the start of the
weekend, with afternoon highs into the mid-to-upper 90s.An active and stormy weather pattern over the central U.S. is expected to
bring heightened chances for severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall,
which could impact holiday gatherings through early this weekend. A
developing area of low pressure over the Northern Plains is forecast to
team up with a lingering frontal boundary stretching from the lower Great
Lakes to the southern Plains to trigger some meteorological fireworks.
Thunderstorm chances span from the Southern Plains/Rockies to the
Middle/Upper Mississippi Valley and also eastward to the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic. Flash flooding will remain a concern throughout the upper
Midwest as well due to yet another round of thunderstorms overlapping
areas dealing with ongoing river flooding and saturated soils, with
scattered flash flooding also possible between the Ohio Valley and
southern Plains. Today, thunderstorms will continue to progress eastward
with the frontal boundary into much of the eastern third of the country.
Isolated strong to severe storms and flash flooding are possible. The
greatest threat for damaging wind gusts associated with these storms will
be across the upper Ohio Valley. Elsewhere, daily thunderstorm chances
associated with daytime heating are possible along the Gulf Coast and
Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible throughout
the north-central U.S. this weekend as upper troughing remains over the
region. There’s a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash
Flooding along a stalled out frontal boundary over portions of
southeastern Virginia down through coastal Carolina on Saturday. Residents
and visitors located within areas expecting severe weather and/or heavy
rainfall are advised to remain weather aware, have multiple ways to
receive warnings, and never drive across flooded roadways.As we head into the weekend, interests along the western Gulf of Mexico
should pay attention to the future progress of Hurricane Beryl, currently
located in the western Caribbean Sea. Beryl is forecast to weaken into a
tropical storm as it traverses the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday before
emerging into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Beryl has an
opportunity to re-intensify over the Gulf and turn more northwest toward
the southern tip of Texas by the end of this forecast period Saturday
evening.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
