This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon May 27 2024
Valid 12Z Mon May 27 2024 – 12Z Wed May 29 2024…Severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain to impact much of the
eastern U.S., with isolated severe weather possible in the southern
Plains……Dangerous heat remains in place this Memorial Day throughout
southern/central Texas, the western and central Gulf Coast, as well as
southern Florida before some gradual relief by midweek……Unsettled weather and thunderstorms return to the southern Plains on
Tuesday, as well as the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies…The severe weather threat shifts eastward today along a cold front
extending southward from a low pressure system forecast to slide northeast
over the Great Lakes. Ongoing storms stretching from the upper Ohio Valley
to the lower Mississippi Valley are expected to weaken this morning, but
redevelopment is likely this afternoon along and ahead of this boundary.
Clusters of merging thunderstorms are possible in the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast, which may also contain intense rainfall rates. This heavy rain
could lead to scattered instances of flash flooding from northeast
Maryland to the Catskill Mountains of New York, where a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect through tonight. The severe
weather threat includes a broader region extending from the lower Great
Lakes to the Southeast, with damaging wind gusts and hail the primary
hazards, with isolated tornadoes possible in the eastern Mid-Atlantic. As
the cold front extends westward towards the southern Plains, a few
isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible in parts of central and
eastern Texas.South of the cold front in parts of Texas, the Gulf Coast, and southern
Florida, oppressive and dangerous heat continues today. Highs into the
upper 90s and triple digits are forecast throughout much of the Lone Star
State, with a few daily record highs possible. Elevated humidity levels
will lead to heat indices up to 120 degrees across portions of southern
Texas. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect from
south-central Texas to the central Gulf Coast. Additionally, a simmering
Memorial Day is also in store for parts of the Florida Peninsula, where
daily record highs could be tied/broken in Key West, Port St Lucie, and
Melbourne. Summer heat is expected to linger over the Sunshine state
through midweek, while gradual cooling enters the Gulf Coast and Texas as
an approaching cold front inches towards the region. Residents are
reminded to follow proper heat safety and check on the vulnerable
population over at least the next few days.The next round of active weather should return to the southern Plains on
Tuesday as scattered thunderstorms impact parts of southeast New Mexico
and much of Texas near a lingering stationary front. Severe wind gusts and
large hail are possible, as well as heavy rain producing scattered areas
of flash flooding. Meanwhile, a separate area of thunderstorms is possible
along a cold front as it progresses from the northern Great Basin on
Tuesday into the northern High Plains on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms
could turn severe and contain intense rainfall rates in these regions.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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