This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun May 19 2024
Valid 12Z Sun May 19 2024 – 12Z Tue May 21 2024…Increasing severe weather and excessive rainfall threats over the
Central U.S. into early next week……Sweltering heat continues across South Florida and southern Texas while
expanding into the southern High Plains…An energetic upper-level pattern will bring a couple rounds of storms to
the central U.S. for Sunday and Monday. On Sunday, moist return flow
following a warm front moving northward through the Plains and ahead of a
dryline over the High Plains will provide more than enough instability to
trigger robust thunderstorm development over the Central Plains.
Increasing upper-level winds will promote supercells with the threat of
large hail and a few tornadoes. Storms are also expected to grow upscale
into one or more organized convective systems, bringing a heightened
threat for potentially widespread, significant damaging winds later Sunday
evening. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Moderate Risk
of severe weather (level 4/5). Storm chances will shift northeastward into
the Upper Midwest overnight Sunday and into the Great Lakes by Monday
following an initial upper-wave/accompanying surface frontal system. An
amplifying long-wave trough over the West will help to enhance lee
cyclogenesis over the High Plains bringing another chance of storms to the
Central Plains/Missouri Valley by Monday evening. The Storm Prediction
Center has included a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the threat of some more
damaging winds and large hail, and possibly a tornado. Some locally heavy
downpours will also be possible, particularly from the Central Plains into
the Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday and the Central Plains once again
Monday, with an isolated chance of flash flooding.The active upper-level pattern will also bring some precipitation chances
to the Northern/Central Rockies and eastern Great Basin over the next
couple of days. Rainfall should generally remain light to moderate, though
some locally heavier storms will be possible especially over Wyoming on
Monday. Some snow is expected for higher mountain elevations. To the east,
an area of low pressure lingering just off the Atlantic coast of the
Southeast with a trailing frontal boundary moving through Florida will
bring more showers and thunderstorms to the area Sunday. Storm chances
will decrease overnight Sunday and into the day Monday from north to south
as the front pushes southward, expected to clear the coast by Tuesday
morning.Intense Summer-like heat will continue over portions of South Florida and
from southern Texas into the southern High Plains the next couple of days.
Highs in the 90s with high humidity values for areas closer to the coast
will bring heat indices into the 105-110 degree range, with a Heat
Advisory in effect for South Florida Sunday. While not as humid,
temperatures will soar into the 100s further inland into west Texas/the
southern High Plains. Some record-tying/breaking temperatures are
possible. While not as hot, conditions will still be well above average
more broadly across the central/eastern U.S. Highs in 80s will be common,
even into more northerly locations like the Great Lakes and the interior
Northeast. One exception will be where onshore flow keeps things a bit
cooler along the East Coast, with highs in the 60s and 70s expected from
coastal New England south into the Mid-Atlantic and coastal Carolinas.
Highs over the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies will remain cool Sunday
behind a cold front, with highs in the 50s and 60s. These cooler
temperatures will spread southward into the Great Basin Monday. Highs in
the 80s and 90s are forecast south of the front over the Southwest.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here, here, here, and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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