It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Mar 13 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 13 2024 – 12Z Fri Mar 15 2024…Heavy snow develops over central Colorado Wednesday night into Thursday
followed by rain/mountain snow across the Four Corners to the southern
High Plains Thursday into Friday……Strong to severe thunderstorms possible from the Midwest to the
southern Plains from this evening into Thursday……Strong to severe thunderstorms with a slight risk of excessive rainfall
expected Thursday evening into early Friday from the southern Plains to
the Mid-South...An amplifying upper-level trough digging into the western U.S. is
gradually pushing the unsettled weather out of the Pacific Northwest into
the Intermountain region. The interaction of the upper trough with colder
air filtering southward is setting the stage for a long-duration snow
event from the central Rockies and down into the Four Corners over the
course of the next few days. The precipitation will first be focused over
the central Rockies from this evening into Thursday when wet snow is
forecast to be the heaviest across the Front Range of Colorado where a few
feet of new snow could fall. Lesser amounts are expected in adjacent
areas but one to two feet of wet snow is possible down into the High
Plains at locations such as Boulder and Denver, Colorado. Hazardous to
very difficult travel is expected as heavy snow and intense snow rates at
times (1-2 inches plus per hour) will lead to deteriorating travel
conditions beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night across the
central/southern Rockies and beginning across the Four Corners region
Thursday night.A second phase of the winter storm will then impact the Four Corners
Region beginning Thursday night, as the upper trough closes off into a
slow-moving upper low. Waves of heavy snow will impact the terrain areas
north of the Mogollon Rim and northeast toward the San Juans and southern
Colorado Rockies. Snow probabilities for 8 inches are moderate to high
(greater than 50%). Localized totals above a foot are possible for the
higher terrain.On the warm side of the system, low relative humidity and gusty winds will
continue to raise the danger of wildfires to locally extreme levels from
the Texas Panhandle to western Texas today. The dry environment in the
Plains states will initially limit the formation of showers and some
thunderstorms across the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Midwest.
However, as a low pressure system develops and tracks across the central
Plains towards the Midwest, influx of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is
forecast to organize an area of enhanced rainfall across Arkansas and
neighboring areas Thursday evening into early Friday when severe weather
is possible. The heavy rain and severe weather threat will then shift
northeast toward Tennessee by Friday morning as the trailing cold front
associated with the low pressure system approaches from the west. The low
pressure system itself will bring widespread moderate to locally heavy
rain with a slight threat of severe weather across the Midwest tonight,
followed by the southern half of the Great Lakes on Thursday, and into New
England Friday morning. The rain may mix with wet snow over the upper
Midwest tonight and over interior New England Friday morning.As the winter storm develops over the western U.S., much of the eastern
U.S. will enter an extended period of very warm and pleasant weather.
High temperatures in the 60s and 70s from the Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic states will be 20-25 degrees above normal for this time of
year.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here, here, here, and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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