It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Mar 06 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 06 2024 – 12Z Fri Mar 08 2024…Wet Wednesday in store from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys to the East
Coast, with locally heavy rainfall and the risk of scattered flash
flooding along the I-95 urban corridor……Showers and thunderstorms expected along the California coast
Wednesday……Strengthening storm system in the Plains to bring showers and
thunderstorms with the threat of severe weather Thursday……Above average temperatures persist for much of the central/eastern U.S.
as conditions remain below average in the West…Wet weather will continue for portions of the eastern U.S. from the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys eastward to the East Coast in a complex pattern.
Ongoing showers will continue along a slow moving cold front stretching
from the Interior Northeast southwestward through the Ohio Valley,
expected to make little eastward progress today and eventually stalling
along the Appalachians. Meanwhile, a combination of upper-level energies
and associated waves of low pressure along a quasi-stationary frontal
boundary draped along the East Coast southwestward through the Southeast
will spread showers and thunderstorms northeastward through the day
Wednesday from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. A
couple axis of locally heavier rainfall are forecast to occur to the east
of the low pressure waves where enhanced very moist, onshore flow from the
Atlantic will exist. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) are
outlooked for the North Carolina Outer Banks and for the coastal
Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, from New Jersey northeastward to
far southwest Maine. Areal average rainfall totals of 1-2″, locally 3″,
may lead to some scattered instances of flash flooding, especially for
urban areas along the I-95 corridor. In addition, some locally heavy
downpours will be possible in South Florida ahead of the trailing frontal
boundary. The front/low pressure waves will begin to push away from the
coast overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, with rain chances
lingering longest into the day Thursday in New England. Some wintry
precipitation will mix in for portions of New England as colder air
spreads southward behind the departing system, and some light snow
accumulations will be possible into Maine.In the West, an upper-level low/Pacific frontal system will move southward
along the California coast and eventually inland, bringing showers and
storms to the area Wednesday. Some locally heavy rainfall will be possible
through southern California, which may lead to some isolated flash
flooding concerns given the very sensitive conditions still in place over
the area after recent heavy rainfall events. Some snow showers will linger
through portions of the higher elevations of the southern Pacific
Northwest/northern California and northern Great Basin, but will come to
an end as moisture flow follows the Pacific system southward. A light
wintry mix for the central Great Basin and showers for the Desert
Southwest will follow the system as it progresses eastward on Thursday.Precipitation chances will also increase for the center of the country as
a couple different systems pass through the region. To the north, an
upper-level wave will help to deepen/organize a low pressure system over
the Northern Plains, forecast to lift northeastward through the Upper
Midwest and into Canada Wednesday-Thursday. Some light showers will be
possible ahead of the system, but more precipitation is expected to follow
in the colder air on the backside of the system track along the Canadian
border. Some light to moderate snow accumulations are expected through
Thursday morning from northern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota.
Further south, the upper-level trough over the West will approach the
Central/Southern Plains from the west, helping to induce lee cyclogenesis
along the Rockies and organize/strengthen a frontal system over the Plains
by Thursday. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms is expected in the
warm sector ahead of the system over the Central/Southern Plains into the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley as moist Gulf return flow spreads
northward, especially into Thursday evening/night. Strengthening deep
layer shear as stronger winds arrive with the approach of the upper-level
trough may lead to some severe thunderstorms, with the Storm Prediction
Center highlighting western Oklahoma into northwest/central Texas in a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) for the threat of some large hail as well as
damaging winds and an isolated tornado. Some locally heavy downpours and
an isolated risk of flash flooding will exist more broadly across the
region as well. Finally, the system will bring some moderate higher
elevation/mountain snow to portions of the Central Rockies, with some
lighter snow mixing in for the Central High Plains.A familiar pattern of above average temperatures for central/eastern
portions of the country and below average temperatures in the West looks
to continue for at least the next couple of days. Highs for many locations
will be upwards of 10-20 degrees above average from the Plains to the East
Coast. Forecast highs generally range from the 40s and 50s from the Upper
Midwest east through the Great Lakes and New England; the 50s and 60s from
the Central Plains east through the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys into
the Mid-Atlantic; and the 60s and 70s from the Southern Plains east
through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast and Florida. A
pocket of much colder temperatures in the 20s and 30s behind a cold front
in the far Northern Plains will begin to spread southward following the
front, with highs dropping into the 30s and 40s for portions of the
Northern/Central Plains Thursday after a warmer Wednesday. Forecast highs
in the West range from the 30s and 40s in the Pacific Northwest and Great
Basin, the 50s and 60s in California, and the 60s and 70s in the Desert
Southwest.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here, here, here, and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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