Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed down 64 points or 0.17%,
- Nasdaq closed down 0.92%,
- S&P 500 closed up 0.60%,
- Gold $2036 up $12.00,
- WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.92,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.275% down 0.02 points,
- USD index $104.08 down $0.21,
- Bitcoin $52,136 up $350
Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.4 percent in January 2024 to 102.7 (2016=100), following a 0.2 percent decline in December 2023. Even so, The Conference Board is no longer forecasting a recession ahead. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board stated:
The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline and the yield spread remained negative. While the declining LEI continues to signal headwinds to economic activity, for the first time in the past two years, six out of its ten components were positive contributors over the past six-month period (ending in January 2024). As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead. While no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, we do expect real GDP growth to slow to near zero percent over Q2 and Q3.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Precious Metal Investors Face Continued Turbulence
- Ghana LNG Import Terminal Nearing Finish Line—and None Too Soon
- A Look Inside Iran’s Shadowy ‘Axis of Resistance’
- Large Crude Carriers See 3-Month High Day Rates on Red Sea Attacks
- Gold Hydrogen Could Be A Game-Changer for Energy Markets
- Carbon Nitride: A Breakthrough in Material Science
- Biden to Okay Year-Round Sales of Higher-Ethanol Gasoline From 2025
- IRS aims to close ‘inequity gap’ for unpaid taxes. How the agency targets top earners for audit
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
The Market in Perspective
Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
The U.S. Has Slashed Carbon Emissions by 879 Million Metric TonsFollowing my previous story on the pause in U.S. liquefied natural gas exports, some readers had a hard time believing that the U.S. leads the world in reducing carbon emissions. Some suggested this was only true for per capita emissions, or that it isn’t true if you consider methane leaks. But, neither of those comments are accurate. Per the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy, over the past 15 years, the U.S. has experienced the largest decline in carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of any country. From the report, this reflects “the… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/The-Environment/Global-Warming/The-US-Has-Slashed-Carbon-Emissions-by-879-Million-Metric-Tons.html |
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Occidental Mulls $20B Asset SaleOccidental Petroleum is considering a sale of its $20 billion natural gas pipeline operator Western Midstream Partners, anonymous sources told Reuters on Tuesday. The move would ease Occidental’s substantial debt burden, which has reached $19 billion as of December 31, in part due to its costly acquisition of Anadarko. Occidental also has agreed to purchase CrownRock for $12 billion, although the FTC has recently delayed the approval of that acquisition. Currently, Occidental owns 49% of Western Midstream, a master limited partnership. It… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Occidental-Mulls-20B-Asset-Sale.html |
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Precious Metal Investors Face Continued TurbulenceVia Metal Miner After almost a year of sideways movement, the Global Precious Metals MMI (Monthly Metals Index) broke its trend, declining by 4.71%. Despite the break in sideways movement for precious metal prices as a whole, most individual commodities still lack strong bullish or bearish movement as they move through Q1. Most gold and other precious metals investors saw their hopes for the Fed lowering interest rates sooner than later dashed. This clearly impacted precious metals markets, particularly gold. And though some recession concerns… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Metals/Gold/Precious-Metal-Investors-Face-Continued-Turbulence.html |
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Tajikistan’s Mega Hydropower Project on the Brink of Financial TurmoilTajikistan’s existential project to build the colossal 335-meter-high Roghun hydropower dam is proceeding apace, but costs are spiraling, and to a level that is making it hard to see where the government is going to find the funds needed to finish the work. To complicate matters for Dushanbe, this is happening against the backdrop of calls from environmental watchdogs for international development lenders to pause the allocation of any future funds to Tajikistan pending a fresh assessment of the project. The extent of the budget overshoot… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Hydroelectric/Tajikistans-Mega-Hydropower-Project-on-the-Brink-of-Financial-Turmoil.html |
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Ghana LNG Import Terminal Nearing Finish Line—and None Too SoonGhana’s much-delayed natural gas import terminal is nearing the finish line and is expected to be complete by the end of this year, the country’s oil regulator said on Tuesday. The LNG pipeline and storage network and import terminal, owned by Tema LNG Terminal Co., is already years behind. Ghana’s National Petroleum Authority CEO Mustapha Abdul-Hamid said on the sidelines of an energy conference in Cairo that Ghana had signed a gas supply agreement with Equatorial Guinea LNG, majority-owned by Marathon Oil Corp, Sonagas, and… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Ghana-LNG-Import-Terminal-Nearing-Finish-Lineand-None-Too-Soon.html |
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A Look Inside Iran’s Shadowy ‘Axis of Resistance’Iran’s so-called axis of resistance is a loose network of proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and an allied state actor. The network is a key element of Tehran’s strategy of deterrence against perceived threats from the United States, regional rivals, and primarily Israel. Active in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, the axis gives Iran the ability to hit its enemies outside its own borders while allowing it to maintain a position of plausible deniability, experts say. Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979,… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/A-Look-Inside-Irans-Shadowy-Axis-of-Resistance.html |
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Large Crude Carriers See 3-Month High Day Rates on Red Sea AttacksRates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) transporting oil from the Middle East to China have risen to a three-month high of $66,600 per day as insurance costs spike amid the Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels. In the fourth-quarter of last year, rates for VLCCs, which carry around 2 million barrels of oil, were averaging around $21,000 per day, according to Freight Waves, citing data from Clarksons. In the third-quarter of last year, day rates averaged $8,700. For March, Bank of America says it expects VLCC day rates to maintain an… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Large-Crude-Carriers-See-3-Month-High-Day-Rates-on-Red-Sea-Attacks.html |
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Venezuela Receives First Russia Urals Cargo in Five YearsRussia has sent its first cargo of its flagship Urals crude grade to Venezuela in five years as tougher U.S. sanctions on Moscow’s oil exports and Red Sea shipping disruptions prompt Russians to seek “friendly” buyers of its crude further away from home. The supertanker Ligera has already arrived near Amuay Bay off Venezuela, after loading at least 1.7 million barrels of Urals crude in ship-to-ship transfers off the southern coasts of Greece in the Mediterranean in January, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Venezuela-Receives-First-Russia-Urals-Cargo-in-Five-Years.html |
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Gold Hydrogen Could Be A Game-Changer for Energy MarketsFor some time now, we’ve seen the race to develop non-fossil energy technology heat up, most emphatically in the nuclear arena. Large engineering firms have declared their intent to build modular reactors and smaller start-ups have declared they would operate prototype fusion reactors within years, not decades. We would rather bet on other possibilities, three especially. All are seemingly far-fetched, but perhaps less so than convincing people to live next door to a first-of-a-kind nuclear reactor. First is the solar power satellite.… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Gold-Hydrogen-Could-Be-A-Game-Changer-for-Energy-Markets.html |
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Russia Loses Appeal Against $50 Billion Payout to Ex-Yukos ShareholdersThe Amsterdam Court of Appeal rejected on Tuesday Russia’s final argument in an appeals case against an arbitration award in which Moscow has to pay $50 billion to the former shareholders of Yukos for deliberately bankrupting Russia’s biggest oil firm in the early 2000s and prosecuting its CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky. The former shareholders of Yukos and the Russian state have been dragging the case through various courts in the Netherlands for over a decade. Former Yukos owner and critic of the Kremlin, Mikhail Khodorkovsky,… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Loses-Appeal-Against-50-Billion-Payout-to-Ex-Yukos-Shareholders.html |
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Carbon Nitride: A Breakthrough in Material ScienceUniversity of Edinburgh scientists have solved a decades-long puzzle and unveiled a near unbreakable substance that could rival diamond, as the hardest material on earth. Experts say the breakthrough opens doors for multifunctional materials to be used for industrial purposes including solar panels and photodetectors, protective coatings for cars and spaceships, and high-endurance cutting tools. The report about the successful production has been published in Advanced Materials. Researchers found that when carbon and nitrogen precursors were subjected… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Carbon-Nitride-A-Breakthrough-in-Material-Science.html |
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Russia Appears to Comply With OPEC+ Production PledgeRussia appears to have complied in January with its pledge to reduce crude oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) this quarter, anonymous sources with knowledge of Russian energy ministry data, which is not public, have told Bloomberg. At the latest OPEC+ meeting at the end of November, Russia said it would deepen the export cut to 500,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2024 – with May and June 2023 being the reference export levels for the cut. The cut this quarter will consist of reductions in exports of 300,000 bpd of… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Appears-to-Comply-With-OPEC-Production-Pledge.html |
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Red Sea Strikes and China’s Economic Stimulus Support Oil PricesChina’s attempts to boost its economy and renewed attacks from the Houthis in the Red Sea are adding upward pressure to oil prices this week.US Natural Gas Prices Collapse on Milder Weather and Robust Output – Russia is struggling to benefit from the extremely constructive diesel cracks lately as repeated Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s refinery infrastructure restricted its throughput capacity.- According to Bloomberg, Russian refinery throughputs have decreased to 5.1 million b/d, a 400,000 b/d drop since the beginning of this… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Red-Sea-Strikes-and-Chinas-Economic-Stimulus-Support-Oil-Prices.html |
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Biden to Okay Year-Round Sales of Higher-Ethanol Gasoline From 2025The Biden Administration will soon allow year-round sales of E15, gasoline with higher ethanol content, but only from 2025, to avoid potential regional spikes in gas prices ahead of the presidential election in November, sources with knowledge of the talks have told Reuters. The Administration is prepared to approve by the end of March a request from Midwest governors – whose states are some of the battleground states in the presidential election – to allow year-round sales of E15, gasoline with 15% ethanol content. Currently,… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Biden-to-Okay-Year-Round-Sales-of-Higher-Ethanol-Gasoline-From-2025.html |
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Saudi Aramco: 6 Million Bpd of Global Oil Production Is Being Lost Every YearGlobal oil supply is sufficient now, but natural declines at oilfields mean that the world would need to find a Saudi Arabia every two years to offset these production drops, Saudi Aramco’s chief financial officer Ziad Al-Murshed has said. Due to the natural decline in operating fields, as many as 6 million barrels per day (bpd) of global oil production is being lost every year and needs to be replaced, Al-Murshed said at the Saudi Capital Market Forum 2024 in Riyadh. The world is down to 3% of spare crude oil production capacity… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Aramco-6-Million-Bpd-of-Global-Oil-Production-Is-Being-Lost-Every-Year.html |
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S&P 500 and Nasdaq close lower on Tuesday, dragged down by Nvidia: Live updatesStocks were lower Tuesday as the market comes off its first losing week in more than a month and traders pored over the latest batch of earnings. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/19/stock-market-today-live-updates.html |
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American Airlines raises bag fees, won’t allow some travel agency bookings to earn milesAmerican Airlines will start charging travelers $40 for a checked bag at the airport and $35 if purchased online. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/american-airlines-raises-bag-fees-limits-miles-for-travel-agency-bookings.html |
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These 3 names that are about to report quarterly results have strong earnings momentumWatch these stocks posting results over the next week that have seen upwardly revised earnings estimates in recent months. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/stock-market-outlook-fourth-quarter-earnings-nvidia-ai-tech.html |
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FuboTV sues Disney, Fox, Warner Bros. over sports joint ventureFuboTV cited what it calls “extreme suppression of competition in the U.S. sports-focused streaming market.” Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/fubotv-sues-disney-fox-warner-bros-over-sports-joint-venture.html |
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Nvidia faces stiff test on Wall Street this week after ‘parabolic’ stock rallyEven if Nvidia shows incredible growth, it could still come up short of elevated expectations given the stock’s fivefold increase since the end of 2022. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/nvidia-faces-stiff-test-in-q4-earnings-after-parabolic-stock-rally.html |
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Walmart to buy TV maker Vizio for $2.3 billion in move to grow its ad businessWalmart touted the ability to grow its ad business through a Vizio TV platform that allows users to watch free ad-supported content. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/walmart-agrees-to-buy-vizio-to-grow-ad-business.html |
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Nikki Haley vows to stay in 2024 race, after raising $16.5 million in JanuaryDonald Trump has beaten Nikki Haley in both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries so far. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/nikki-haley-vows-to-stay-in-2024-race-after-raising-16point5-million-in-january-.html |
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Jim Chanos discusses his legendary Enron short bet more than two decades laterShort seller Jim Chanos breaks down his legendary trade calling the collapse of Enron, the world’s largest energy trading company at the time. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/jim-chanos-on-his-legendary-enron-short-bet-2-decades-later.html |
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IRS aims to close ‘inequity gap’ for unpaid taxes. How the agency targets top earners for auditThe IRS will continue to crack down on top earners who haven’t paid taxes owed. Here’s how the agency is targeting higher-income audits. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/heres-how-the-irs-is-targeting-top-earners-for-audit.html |
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Ford cuts prices of electric Mustang Mach-E by up to $8,100The No. 2 U.S. automaker’s lowest-price 2023 model year Mach E version now has a suggested retail price of $39,895, down from $42,995. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/ford-cuts-prices-of-electric-mustang-mach-e-by-up-to-8100-.html |
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Woman drops lawsuit against Leon Black alleging rape at Jeffrey Epstein mansionLeon Black in 2023 agreed to pay $62.5 million to the U.S. Virgin Islands to be released from any potential claims related to its probe of Jeffrey Epstein. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/woman-drops-claim-of-leon-black-rape-at-jeffrey-epstein-mansion.html |
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Bonds, Bullion, & Big-Tech Fear Bid, Stocks Skid Ahead Of NVDA’s Big DayAfter yesterday’s holiday – to celebrate dead (or nearly dead) presidents? – US markets stumbled to start the week (ahead of NVDA’s big earnings announcement tomorrow after the close). NVDA vols are a little ‘bid’ let’s say (with an implied move of +/-11% or a $200BN range of outcomes)… Source: Bloomberg That helped drag Nasdaq’s ‘VIX’ up to its highest since early November (but note that S&P ‘VIX’ remains below last week’s highs and Small Caps ‘VIX’ is at its highest since May 2023)…. Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-bid-stocks-skid-ahead-nvdas-big-da |
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SBF Jail Photo Leaks: Former Inmate Says Crypto Convict ‘More Gangster’ Than 6ix9inePhotos have emerged of disgraced former crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, who has been locked up at New York’s Metropolitan Detention Center while he awaits sentencing following his conviction for defrauding clients of the now-bankrupt FTX cryptocurrency exchange. SBF, 31, can be seen in the newly surfaced photo obtained by crypto crime reporter Tiffany Fong, who also interviewed an inmate known as G Lock (pictured beside SBF): Photo via Tiffany Fong (@TiffanyFong_)According to Fong, the photo was taken on Dec. 17, 2023. In an interview with Fong, G Lock described SBF as being “weird as shit” and more “scruffy than a motherfucker,” though he was a “good guy.” “Sam had a belly, he was eating good. [Now] he’s skinny like a toothpick,” Mr. Lock continued. “He’s not getting a shower, he’s … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/sbf-jail-photos-leak-former-inmate-says-crypto-con-more-gangster-6ix9ine |
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Fani In The Hot Seat: Former Harvard Professor Warns DA Willis May Have Committed PerjuryAuthored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), Retired Harvard Law professor Alan Dershowitz said that Fulton County’s district attorney may have lied under oath last week during hours of testimony in court to determine whether she would be disqualified from prosecuting a case in Georgia against former President Donald Trump. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis testifies during a hearing in the case of the State of Georgia v. Donald John Trump at the Fulton County Courthouse in Atlanta on Feb. 15, 2024. (Alyssa Pointer/Pool via Getty Images)The district attorney, Fani Willis, is prosecuting a case against President Trump and more than a dozen co-defendants, alleging that they were … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fani-hot-seat-former-harvard-professor-warns-fani-willis-may-have-committed-perjury |
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Biden’s War On Domestic Energy IntensifiesAuthored by Matt Egan and Brent Bennett via RealClear Wire, On Jan. 26, President Joe Biden took an aggressive step forward in his war on American energy by halting the permitting of new liquified natural gas (LNG) export terminals. This action has massive global implications, as TPPF’s Mark Mills laid out when the decision was publicly announced. It also has the added benefit for the president of attacking primarily Texas and Louisiana, red states that account for the bulk of U.S. LNG exports. This decision comes on the heels of Texas taking steps to secure its border with Mexico, putting the state directly at odds with the administration—once again. But the president’s politically motivated actions will reverberate far beyond America’s natural gas producing regions. By l … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bidens-war-domestic-energy-intensifies |
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The Body Shop to shut up to half of its UK storesHundreds of staff will lose their jobs at head office and in stores, with closures starting immediately. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68347918?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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Cameron government knew Post Office ditched Horizon IT investigationDocuments show the secret investigation may have helped wrongly accused postmasters prove their innocence. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68146054?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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UK recession may already be over, says Bank of England bossBank of England governor Andrew Bailey tells MPs the UK’s economic downturn is “very small”. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68346038?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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4 Nifty stocks saw over 5% EPS downgrades post Q3Earnings per share or EPS is an important financial measure, which indicates the profitability of a company. It is calculated by dividing the company’s net income by its total number of outstanding shares. Signs of a falling EPS do not bode well. Here’s a look at four Nifty stocks that saw over 5% EPS downgrades post Q3. (Source: MOSL) Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/4-nifty-stocks-saw-over-5-eps-downgrades-post-q3-do-you-own-any/red-flag/slideshow/107853818.cms |
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Tech View: Nifty target shifts to 22,500. What traders should do on WednesdayNifty on Tuesday made a fresh peak and ended 75 points higher near the 22,200 mark to form a long bull candle on the daily charts. The index has been making a higher high both on daily and weekly charts. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/tech-view-nifty-target-shifts-to-22500-what-traders-should-do-on-wednesday/articleshow/107854803.cms |
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Most Indian financial institutions have a clean white shirt: Uday KotakKotak stated that he is cautious about building India with 1 or 2 companies in each sector while discussing capacity building. He prefers having 4-6 large players in banking and other sectors. In his opinion, broad-based capacity creation will be important to create a $30 trillion economy. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/most-indian-financial-institutions-have-a-clean-white-shirt-uday-kotak/articleshow/107844694.cms |
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Palo Alto Networks’ stock tumbles as earnings forecast underwhelmsThe cybersecurity company came up short with its forecast for the current quarter and trimmed its full-year outlook. Read more at: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/palo-alto-networks-stock-tumbles-as-earnings-forecast-underwhelms-5c7f50af?mod=mw_rss_topstories |
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U.S. stocks could fall in March thanks to waning momentum, ‘seasonal’ weakness: analystThe recent bullish momentum that has propelled U.S stocks to record territory is fading, and “seasonal” weakness in March could push major stock indexes into one of their worst stretches of the year, according to Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG. Read more at: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-stocks-could-fall-in-march-thanks-to-waning-momentum-seasonal-weakness-analyst-b921a085?mod=mw_rss_topstories |
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Why DraftKings made $8 million and BetMGM lost nearly $5 million on Super Bowl bets in New YorkDespite both giving the 49ers better odds to win, one sportsbook made millions while another lost millions. Read more at: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-draftkings-made-8-million-and-betmgm-lost-nearly-5-million-on-super-bowl-bets-in-new-york-8a5f2d2c?mod=mw_rss_topstories |