It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Feb 11 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 11 2024 – 12Z Tue Feb 13 2024…A significant winter storm will continue impacting the Southern Rockies
and High Plains today before turning northeast and aiming for the Northern
Mid-Atlantic, New York, and New England early this week……Areas of severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will impact the Gulf
Coast states and Southeast for the remainder of the weekend and through
Monday……Above normal temperatures to generally persist into early next week for
much of the northern and eastern U.S., with below normal temperatures
across the South…
Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:
Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.
| Notices: The article on the Seasonal Outlook can be accessed HERE. What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A significant winter storm associated with a strong upper-level trough and
associated closed low will cross the southern Plains today which will
continue to focus areas of heavy snowfall across portions of the southern
Rockies and especially the adjacent areas of the southern High Plains.
Additional snowfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches will be possible for
areas of the Texas Panhandle. As low pressure consolidates and deepens off
to the northeast toward the Arklatex region by tonight, some snowfall will
also begin to overspread areas of Oklahoma as marginally cold air combined
with moisture wrapping northward of the low center focus areas of moderate
to locally heavy snowfall.Farther south and east across the Gulf Coast states, Mid-South, and
Southeast, low pressure will be approaching today through tonight, and
this coupled with moisture and instability pooling along a strong frontal
zone draped over the region will favor numerous areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms. Some severe weather is expected, and this will include a
concern for strong damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. The Storm
Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2 of
5) from eastern Texas to Alabama for today and tonight, and then for the
Southeast on Monday.In addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rainfall is expected, and
there may be enough rain across portions of the Mid-South and Southeast to
produce at least an isolated threat for flash flooding where any areas of
showers and thunderstorms train over the same area. Locally a few inches
of rain will be possible across these areas as the low center gradually
crosses through the Tennessee Valley and aims for the Mid-Atlantic states
by Monday night.As the storm system arrives across the Mid-Atlantic region, the concern
will again turn to a threat for significant winter weather as moisture
surging northward ahead of the strengthening low center begins to
encounter sufficient levels of cold air for a swath of heavy accumulating
snowfall. The primary corridor of heavy snow is expected to set up across
northern Pennsylvania and southern New York before tracking into southern
New England on Tuesday as a very deep low center edges offshore of the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast. Locally as much as 6 to 12 inches of snow can
be expected north of this low track. Strong winds and coastal flooding
will also accompany this evolving nor’easter threat. Meanwhile, farther
south closer to the track of the low itself, areas of heavy rain can be
expected given the presence of warmer temperatures.Despite the threat of heavy accumulating snowfall for areas of the
northern Mid-Atlantic and New England early this week, temperatures across
large areas of the northern and eastern U.S. will remain above normal
given the lack of cold air transport south from Canada. Temperatures
across large areas of the South though will actually be below normal given
the extensive cloud cover, and threat for heavy precipitation.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here, here, here, and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittant so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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