It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Feb 06 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 06 2024 – 12Z Thu Feb 08 2024…Heavy rain and flash flooding threat expands from Southern California
into the Desert Southwest Tuesday……Heavy Snow for the Intermountain West mountains through mid-week…
…Temperatures will continue to run above average from the Plains to the
Northeast with record breaking warmth for parts of the Upper Midwest…
Looking out a bit farther and focusing on the more series events:
Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.
| Notices: The article on the Seasonal Outlook can be accessed HERE. What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to linger for Southern California
while increasing across the Desert Southwest Tuesday as Pacific moisture
flows northward ahead of a slow moving deep upper-level trough/surface
frontal system. The anomalously high moisture as well as favorable upslope
flow along the higher terrain of the Transverse and Peninsula ranges in
Southern California and the Mogollon Rim in Arizona will lead to locally
heavy rainfall. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) are in
effect for the threat of some scattered instances of flash flooding for
both portions of Southern California and the Colorado River Basin.
Although rain rates/totals will be trending downward across Southern
California compared to the last couple of days, the risk for flooding and
mud/debris flows remains given the very wet antecedent conditions. For
higher elevations, snowfall will be coming down for the Sierra Nevada
while remaining heavy for elevations above 7000 feet in the
Transverse/Peninsular ranges.A continued influx of moisture from the Pacific as the upper-level trough
moves slowly eastward will bring heavy snowfall to the regional mountain
ranges of the Intermountain West over the next couple of days. Some
particularly high totals are expected for the Four Corners region, where
amounts of 2+ feet are currently forecast. Other ranges of the Great Basin
and Northern Rockies will see totals generally between 6-12″, with some
locally higher amounts possible. Lower elevation/valley locations across
the region will see a mix of moderate rain and snow showers, though any
snow accumulations are expected to remain limited. Height falls beginning
to overspread the Northern/Central High Plains will also lead to enhanced
lee cylogenisis and a developing low pressure/frontal system Wednesday.
This will bring increasing chances for wintry precipitation spreading
eastward across the Northern High Plains as the system strengthens. Some
freezing rain and sleet will be possible, as well as for a few inches of
snow, particularly for northeastern Montana.Elsewhere, the Midwest, South, and East Coast will remain mostly dry
through mid-week. Upper-level ridging over the central/eastern U.S. will
also keep temperatures generally mild and above average from the Plains to
the Northeast/Appalachians, with below average temperatures along the
coastal Southeast and west of the Rockies. Highs across the Northern
Plains/Upper Midwest in particular continue to remain upwards of 20-30
degrees above average, with 40s and 50s forecast. Some daily
record-tying/breaking high temperatures will be possible for the Upper
Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here, here, here, and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittant so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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