This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S. we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page. But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.
| Notices: We recently published a review of October weather worldwide and you can access that article HERE. And a review of October weather for the U.S. which you can access HERE. We have now published the NOAA Seasonal Update which you can access HERE. This was followed up with the update of the Mid-December Outlook which you can access HERE. What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Dec 16 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Dec 16 2023 – 12Z Mon Dec 18 2023…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southern
Georgia and Florida on Saturday and over the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of Florida on
Saturday and parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Sunday……Lake-enhanced snow over parts of the western portion of the UP of
Michigan Sunday night into Monday…
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A developing area of low pressure over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico will
rapidly deepen Saturday night into Monday. The storm will move onshore
over the west coast of Florida overnight Saturday, moving northeastward to
South Carolina by Sunday evening and then to the Delaware Coast by Monday.
The major system will start to produce showers and thunderstorms over
Florida, with heavy rain on Saturday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southern Georgia and
Florida through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and
small streams the most vulnerable.In addition, the storm will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over
the Florida Peninsula. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Florida Peninsula through Sunday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, few tornadoes, and a minimal
threat of hail.On Sunday, the storm will move from northeast Florida to the Mid-Atlantic
Coast by Monday. The threat of excessive rainfall moves northward over the
Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of southeastern Pennsylvania/Delaware to eastern South
Carolina from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.Likewise, the threat of severe thunderstorms moves northward to the
southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of southeastern North Carolina and
northeastern Southern Carolina from Sunday through Monday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.Meanwhile, low pressure and associated front over the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley will move into the Great Lakes and dissipate by Sunday
afternoon. The system will produce rain from the Upper Mississippi
Valley/Upper Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley and showers and
thunderstorms over the Central Gulf Coast on Saturday. Moreover, a streak
of light snow will develop over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley.Cold high pressure will move south out of Western Canada on Sunday, moving
to the Northern/Central Plains by Monday. The cold air will produce light
to moderate snow over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and moderate
to heavy snow over the western portion of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
from Sunday evening into Monday.Furthermore, moisture ahead of a front over the Eastern Pacific will move
over parts of the West Coast, creating light rain over parts of California
and Oregon Sunday evening into Monday.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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