This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
We start with the U.S. Information. That is the longest part of the article. Then we have a short section on World Weather and then we address the Tropics. When there are tropical storms that might impact the U.S. we provide more detailed information which updates frequently on those storms.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report as I have moved the highlights into the body of the report where it is followed by the Today, Tomorrow and the Next Day maps and a lot more. I will try to feature the most important graphic in the lede paragraph on the home page. But there are often multiple maps that are very important so it is best to read the full article. We now have a snow report and it is possible to get a ten-day NWS forecast for the zip code of your choice.
| Notices: We recently published a review of October weather worldwide and you can access that article HERE. And a review of October weather for the U.S. which you can access HERE. We have now published the NOAA Seasonal Update which you can access HERE. What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
First the highlights from the NWS.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Nov 29 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 29 2023 – 12Z Fri Dec 01 2023…Below average temperatures continue Wednesday for the East Coast and
South with freeze-related advisories for the Florida Panhandle and south
Georgia……New storm system to bring threat of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain
from Texas into the Mississippi Valley by Thursday……Unsettled weather to arrive for the Pacific Northwest and California
late Wednesday through Thursday…
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
High temperatures will once again be chilly and below average by about
15-20 degrees Wednesday along the East Coast and into the South as broad
upper-level troughing remains in place over the region. Forecast highs
range from the 20s and 30s in New England, 30s and 40s for the
Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, and 50s and 60s through much of the South
outside of South Florida. Frost and freeze-related advisories remain in
place from the Florida Panhandle into south Georgia as temperatures
Thursday morning may once again dip to near or below the freezing mark,
potentially damaging/killing sensitive crops and vegetation. Conditions
will moderate Thursday as the upper-level trough begins to shift eastward,
with highs 10-15 degrees warmer and much closer to average to close
November. Some lingering lake-effect snow showers downwind of Lakes Erie
and Ontario should taper off through Wednesday morning, with otherwise
mostly dry conditions along the East Coast.An upper-level wave passing quickly over the Four Corners and out over the
Plains will help to encourage lee cyclogenesis late Wednesday/early
Thursday, helping to organize a surface frontal system over the Southern
Plains. Some light to moderate rain/snow showers will be possible in the
colder air over the Four Corners region Wednesday into Thursday, with a
few inches of accumulations possible in the higher mountain elevations.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight Wednesday ahead of the
system over eastern portions of the Southern Plains and into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Continued very moist southerly flow from the Gulf and
increasing shear as the upper-level wave approaches will lead to the
threat of severe thunderstorms into the day Thursday over southeastern
Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe
weather (level 3/5) for the threat of a few tornadoes. Storm coverage
should continue to expand north and eastward through the Southern Plains
into the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley by later Thursday into the early
morning hours Friday. Some locally heavy downpours are expected, with a
few isolated instances of flash flooding possible, though dry antecedent
conditions in the area should keep this threat limited. Forecast highs
will be running in the 50s and 60s from the Southern Plains into the
Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley, with 40s and 50s for the Central Plains.
Some cooler temperatures will flow into portions of the Central/Southern
High Plains following a cold front passage Thursday, dropping into the
40s.Some light coastal showers will be possible from central to southern
coastal California Wednesday as a weak Pacific system approaches the
coast. Then, a stronger series of systems will approach the Pacific
Northwest/northern California by late Wednesday bringing increasing
precipiation chances with lower elevation/coastal rain and mountain snow.
The precipitation will spread inland into the Great Basin Thursday, with a
wintry mix for the interior valleys and snow for the mountains. Some
heavier snow accumulations are possible for the Cascades and Sierra
Nevada, with some light to moderate snow for other regional higher
elevations/mountain ranges. Any accumulations in the valleys should be
limited. Forecast high temperatures more broadly across the West will be
in the 30s and 40s for the Great Basin/Rockies/Pacific Northwest, the 50s
and 60s for California, and the 60s and 70s for the Desert Southwest.
Elsewhere, conditions will be dry across the Northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest. Highs will be well above average Wednesday particularly for
the Northern Plains, with some temperatures into the 50s possible.
Otherwise, highs will generally be in the 30s and 40s.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts.
Day 1
Day 2
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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