Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 21 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 21 2023 – 12Z Thu Nov 23 2023…Active weather expected to impact pre-Thanksgiving travels for much of
the U.S. east of the Mississippi River but should exit the East Coast just
in time for Thanksgiving……Severe weather threat will progress from west to east across the
central Gulf Gulf states into the Southeast……Heavy rain expected to move through the interior Mid-Atlantic tonight
with some snow and freezing rain over interior New England into
Wednesday……Snow is forecast to develop over the northern Rockies to northern High
Plains to begin Thanksgiving holiday…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A developing low pressure system roughly centered over the Mississippi
Valley early this morning will continue to bring an expanding area of
inclement weather through much of the eastern half of the country as we
head toward the peak of the pre-Thanksgiving Day travel period.
Precipitation associated with this system is already rather expansive
early this morning, stretching from the central Gulf Coast up through the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, into the Midwest and the southern part of the
Great Lakes. Thunderstorms are expected to be most intense early today
across the lower Mississippi Valley with severe weather excepted before
cooler and drier air arrives behind a dynamic cold front. Farther north,
rain heavy at times, with embedded thunderstorms, is forecast to quickly
overspread the Appalachians and the interior Mid-Atlantic by this evening,
with rainfall totals locally a few inches possible. Nearly all of these
regions have had much below average precipitation over the past several
weeks, with areas from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee
Valley in Severe to Exceptional drought conditions. Given these recent
dry conditions, stream flows and soil moisture are below average, which
should decrease the threat of flash floods. However, isolated flash
flooding still possible given the heavy rainfall threat, especially across
urban areas.Still farther north across New England, trapped cold air will support snow
and areas of freezing rain beginning Tuesday evening over upstate New York
as the moisture from the low pressure system arrives from the southwest.
A few inches of snow is possible across interior New England before
tapering off from west to east later on Wednesday. By the morning on
Thanksgiving Day, much of the Eastern Seaboard should clear out just in
time for holiday festivities as the storm should begin to move out to sea.
However, much of the Northeast will likely contend with blustery
conditions as the storm is forecast to deepen quite rapidly just offshore.Much more tranquil weather is expected across most regions to the west of
the Mississippi River to the West coast over the next few days. Much of
this region will be dry, save for the Pacific Northwest where a slow
moving front will bring light to moderate precipitation amounts by tonight
into early Wednesday. A large dome of high pressure will promote very
gusty Santa Ana winds over southern California today given a tight
pressure gradient in place. By Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the
moisture in the Pacific Northwest is forecast to join force with colder
air arriving from western Canada to develop an expanding area of snow to
enshroud the northern Rockies into the northern High Plains to begin
Thanksgiving Day.Above average temperatures are expected the next couple of days from the
West Coast, across the Rockies and into the Northern to Central Plains.
Much colder temperatures expected across the Northern Plains beginning
late Wednesday into Thanksgiving as a strong cold front pushes southward
out of central Canada.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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