Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 20 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 20 2023 – 12Z Wed Nov 22 2023…Enhanced Risk of severe weather across the Deep South later
today/tonight ahead of a low pressure system……Locally heavy rain and possibly strong thunderstorms across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley today and then across the interior Mid-Atlantic
Tuesday into early Wednesday……High-elevation snows and lower elevation rain across the central and
southern Rockies/High Plains expected to taper off tonight……Santa Ana winds develop over southern California during the next couple
of days…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A low pressure system currently developing over the mid-section of the
country will send a wave of inclement weather through the eastern
two-thirds of the country through the next couple of days. The most
significant bout of inclement weather appears to be later today into
tonight from eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi Valley where
outbreak of severe thunderstorms are possible as a dynamic cold front
associated with the intensifying low pressure system sweeps across. Some
of the thunderstorms could contain high winds and tornadoes, together with
heavy downpours and hail. The speed of the system is expected to limit
the threat of flash flooding for these areas.By Tuesday, the center of the low pressure system is forecast to reach the
lower Great Lakes bringing widespread rain with some embedded
thunderstorms from the Midwest to the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley,
and quickly toward New England Tuesday night. Temperatures will probably
be cold enough to support some wet snow early on Tuesday over the upper
Midwest, reaching eastward into interior New England by Tuesday night
along with some freezing rain possible. Meanwhile, some strong
thunderstorms can be expected to track across the Tennessee
Valley/interior Southeast early Tuesday, followed by the southern
Appalachians and into interior Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday night into early
Wednesday as a low pressure wave forms and tracks along a warm front.
Colder air will then be ushered across the central and southern Plains
behind the low pressure system. Some high-elevation snows and lower
elevation rain are expected across the central and southern Rockies/High
Plains today but they are expected to taper off tonight behind the
intensifying system.A large dome of high pressure building behind departing low pressure
system will then settle across much of the western U.S for the next few
days. Tight pressure gradient around the High will promote Santa Ana
winds especially across southern California.High temperatures today and Tuesday will remain below average from New
England south into the Mid-Atlantic following a frontal passage, with 30s
and 40s for New England and 50s into the Mid-Atlantic. In the South,
conditions will be unseasonably warm ahead of the approaching frontal
system, with 70s and even some 80s along the Gulf Coast. The digging
trough over the central U.S. will bring cooler and below average
temperatures south into the Southern Plains and Texas by Tuesday, with
widespread 50s expected. Highs will be more seasonably cool further north
across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes with mainly 40s forecast.
Temperatures will moderate in the West after a cooler weekend, with 40s
and 50s for the Great Basin/Rockies, 50s and 60s for the Pacific Northwest
and northern California, and 70s for Southern California and the Desert
Southwest.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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