Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 18 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 18 2023 – 12Z Mon Nov 20 2023…Unsettled weather expands across the western U.S. with strong winds,
high-elevation snows and coastal rains……Another system forming over the central High Plains will bring an
expanding area of showers and thunderstorms across the central U.S….…Great Plains warms up as the West cools down…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
More unsettled weather is expected to reach the West Coast through the
next couple of days as a southern stream cyclone merges and phases with a
vigorous northern stream trough. Northern California is already receiving
frequent rounds of moderate rain ahead of the southern stream cyclone,
with snow beginning to reach into the Sierra Nevada. By tonight, the
northern stream trough is forecast to merge with the southern stream
cyclone near the West Coast. This interaction will send an expanding area
of high-elevation snow and valley rain rapidly inland through the
Intermountain West and the Great Basin on Sunday, together with a surge of
cold air with strong winds through much of the western U.S.Meanwhile, a new low pressure system is forecast to form over the central
High Plains tonight. This system will be energized as the upper trough
moves through western U.S. on Sunday, and then become the main low
pressure system by Monday morning when the upper trough gets ready to exit
the Rockies. An area of showers and thunderstorms can be expected to
develop over the central Plains on Sunday which will likely expand toward
the north and east quickly Sunday night into Monday morning as the system
further consolidates.Along the East Coast, a cyclone is forecast to rapidly intensify offshore
and will likely miss New England as it passes east of Maine tonight. Some
showers are expected to move across the Northeast and down into the
Appalachians today ahead of the front. Colder air will spread into New
England by tonight, with periods of light snow expected to develop over
the interior sections on Sunday.Much of the country will be milder than normal before the surge of cold
air behind the upper trough reaches into the western U.S. on Sunday. The
East will also be very mild before cooler than normal temperatures
overspread the region behind a cold front. Meanwhile, temperatures climb
over the Great Plains beneath an area of high pressure and out ahead of
the approaching mid to upper-level trough.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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