Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Nov 15 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 15 2023 – 12Z Fri Nov 17 2023…Heavy rainfall and locally significant urban flash flooding will be a
major concern today and tonight for southeast Florida……Locally heavy snowfall expected today across portions of the Northern
Rockies……Unsettled weather remains in the forecast across much of California…
…Dry and mild conditions will continue across the Intermountain West,
Plains, and Midwest while gradually expanding toward the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast over the next couple of days…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
The biggest story for next couple of days will be the slow-moving storm
system over the Gulf of Mexico which will be gradually moving east while
bringing generally cool temperatures and beneficial rains to
drought-stricken areas of the central and eastern Gulf Coast region along
with parts of the interior of the Southeast. However, as this storm system
approaches the Florida Peninsula later today and through tonight, a
combination of strong energy associated with an upper-level trough and the
pooling of tropical moisture along a quasi-stationary front draped near
far southern Florida, should set the stage for very heavy rainfall
potential. This will especially be the case for the highly urbanized I-95
corridor of southeast Florida from West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale
down through Miami and Homestead.Concentrated areas of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms are expected
over these areas, and this will be influenced also by the gradual
development of a wave of low pressure over the Florida Straits along the
aforementioned front. Extremely heavy rainfall rates are expected which
may approach or exceed 2 to 3 inches per hour. The persistence of these
high rainfall rates today into tonight may produce rainfall totals upwards
of 3 to 6 inches with some isolated max amounts approaching 10 inches by
early Thursday. This will drive a concern for significant urban flash
flooding as a result. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Moderate
Risk of excessive rainfall to address these concerns. Low pressure just
offshore of the Florida Atlantic coast on Thursday will then begin to lift
northward and may still produce some additional heavy rains along the
immediate east coast of Florida as onshore flow persists, but the heaviest
of the rains should gradually shift offshore which will allow for any
additional flooding concerns to begin to gradually diminish.Meanwhile, a front currently draped over portions of the northern Great
Basin and adjacent areas of the Northern Rockies coupled with a couple of
weak waves of low pressure and Pacific moisture should bring a threat of
shower activity to these areas including areas of heavy snow over the
Bitterroots today and including Glacier National Park. Snowfall totals by
early Thursday may reach as high as 4 to 8 inches with some spotty amounts
over a foot possible for the highest elevations. High pressure and drier
conditions will arrive on Thursday which will bring the precipitation here
gradually to an end.Unsettled weather will again be expected to impact California over the
next couple of days as a storm system off the West Coast continues to
meander and moves only very slowly eastward going through the latter part
of the week. Pacific moisture though will be streaming inland and there
will be areas of light to moderate rain, and especially for the coastal
ranges. Some light accumulating snowfall will be possible for the higher
terrain of the Sierra Nevada.The remainder of the country will continue to be generally dry and very
mild given the lack of any cold air pushing south from Canada.
Temperatures across the Intermountain West, Plains, Midwest, and Ohio
Valley will be as much as 15 to 25 degrees above normal for this time of
the year. This mild air will be reaching the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by
later in the week.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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