Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 14 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 14 2023 – 12Z Thu Nov 16 2023…Cool temperatures and beneficial rains to continue to focus across
portions of the Gulf Coast states through the middle of the week……Very heavy rainfall and a threat of urban flash flooding will be a
concern for portions of southern Florida on Wednesday……Mild air will continue in place across much of the Intermountain West
and stretching east across the Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley this
week…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A storm system currently over the western Gulf of Mexico will move
gradually east over the next couple of days and will continue to bring
cool temperatures and a threat of moderate to locally heavy rain to
portions of the Gulf Coast. Many areas of the Gulf Coast region are in a
drought, and so any rainfall here will be very beneficial in nature.
However, by later Wednesday, this storm system will move into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico along with a frontal system that will be draped near
southern Florida. Strong energy aloft helping to drive this storm system
and associated low pressure eastward will combine with the front and
tropical moisture pooling along it for areas of very heavy rainfall
potential. This will especially be the case for southern Florida and
potentially the highly urbanized I-95 corridor from West Palm Beach and
Fort Lauderdale down through Miami. Locally several inches of rain will be
possible across these areas, and there will be a notable concern for urban
flash flooding should these rains materialize. The Weather Prediction
Center has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall at this time to
address these concerns.Meanwhile, a front will remain generally stalled out going through the
middle of the week across portions of the northern Great Basin and
adjacent areas of the Northern Rockies which coupled with the arrival of a
couple of weak waves of low pressure and Pacific moisture should bring a
threat of shower activity. The heaviest precipitation should generally be
on Wednesday and focused over the Bitterroots where heavy snowfall can be
expected. Some of the higher peaks are expected to receive as much as 6 to
12 inches of snow before a new cold front crosses the region by Thursday
followed by high pressure and drier conditions.Unsettled weather can be expected to impact California over the next few
days as a storm system off the West Coast continues to meander and moves
only very slowly eastward through the middle to latter part of the week.
Pacific moisture though will be streaming inland and there will be areas
of light to moderate rain, and especially for the coastal ranges. Some
light accumulating snowfall will be possible for the higher terrain of the
Sierra Nevada.The remainder of the country going through the middle to latter part of
the week will be generally dry and very mild given the lack of any cold
air push southward from Canada. Temperatures across the Intermountain
West, Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley will be warming to as much as 15 to
25 degrees above normal for this time of the year.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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