Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 13 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 13 2023 – 12Z Wed Nov 15 2023…Cool temperatures and beneficial rains to cross over the
drought-stricken Gulf Coast states...…Some accumulating snow expected for the higher elevations of the
Washington Cascades and Northern Rockies over the next few days……Mild air expected across much of the Intermountain West and stretching
east across large areas of the Plains and Midwest…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A storm system developing offshore of southern Texas will move gradually
east across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, and this
will bring a swath of moderate to locally heavy rain for portions of the
drought-stricken Gulf Coast states. Given the very dry antecedent
conditions, these rains will be very beneficial in nature and there may be
locally a few inches of rain that falls. Any flooding concerns should be
minimal and generally confined to the more urbanized locations. The clouds
and rain will also keep temperatures rather cool, and many areas from
southern Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast will see temperatures below
normal.Meanwhile, a cold front crossing the Pacific Northwest will advance east
across the Northern Rockies by Tuesday before gradually stalling out over
parts of the Intermountain West. The front along with some intrusions of
Pacific moisture will bring a threat for showers, including some
accumulating snowfall for the higher elevations of the Washington Cascades
and the Northern Rockies. The higher peaks may see locally in excess of 6
inches of new snow by the middle of the week. Some of this moisture will
also be influenced by a developing area of low pressure offshore of
California which will slowly drop southward and meander off the coast
going through the middle of the week. This will bring some light to
moderate rainfall into California and may even bring a few inches of snow
to the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada.Elsewhere, aside from a weak area of low pressure crossing portions of
northern New England and bringing some light snowfall here early this
week, the story for the remainder of the nation will be the very mild and
dry weather. Much of the nation is dominated by an airmass of Pacific
origins, with all of the cold, Arctic air currently focused well to the
north over central and northern Canada. Over the next few days, very mild
weather will continue across especially areas of the Intermountain West,
the Central and Northern Plains, and the Midwest where temperatures will
be as much as 15 to 25 degrees above normal.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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