Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 29 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 29 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 31 2023…Heavy snow continues for parts of the central Rockies and central High
Plains through early this afternoon, while areas of light freezing
rain/drizzle are forecast throughout the Southern Plains……Widespread showers and thunderstorms to span from the southern Plains
to the Northeast over the next few days, including the potential for
significant snowfall over parts of northern Maine on Monday……Very dry and windy conditions developing across California will
increase the threat of wildfire activity……Record-breaking warmth expected over the southern Mid-Atlantic today as
below average temperatures envelop the central United States…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Most of the unsettled weather impacting the CONUS through early this week
will be associated with a sharp frontal boundary slowly progressing south
and east along with embedded areas of low pressure. A strong high pressure
system stretching from the northern Rockies to the north-central U.S.
contains a repository of well below average temperatures expected to
spread across the country as the cold front eventually swings through the
Southeast on Tuesday. This frontal boundary currently spans from the
Mid-Atlantic to the Southwest and is aiding widespread snowfall across the
central Rockies/Plains and shower activity from the southern Plains to the
Lower Great Lakes early this morning. Heavy snow remains possible through
early this afternoon across parts of Colorado, particularly the
mountainous terrain and Front Range. The highest additional snowfall
totals today are likely to occur along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains,
where there is a a high probability (>70%) for more than 4 inches and the
potential for up to an additional foot of snow. Winter Storm Warnings
remain in effect for parts of Colorado this morning, with Winter Weather
Advisories spanning from central Nebraska to the Texas Panhandle in order
to account for light snow and/or light freezing rain/drizzle.Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are also expected to impact
a large area along and north of the aforementioned frontal boundary
between the southern Plains and Northeast through Monday. Locally heavy
rain along areas with recently dampened soil may lead to scattered
instances of flash flooding from the Texas Triangle to the Lower Ohio
Valley. Here, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been
issued through early Monday. As an area of low pressure develops over the
Ohio Valley today along the front and progresses northeast, advancing
precipitation across the Northeast will overlap with a colder airmass
entering northern New England. Temperatures are likely to be cold enough
over northern Maine to support moderate snowfall and potentially the first
significant snow of the season. Probabilities for over 4 inches of
snowfall by Monday night are high (>80%) throughout the North Woods region
of Maine. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Meanwhile, the next
low pressure system to enter the Great Lakes within the relatively cold
airmass in place could lead to lake effect snow bands throughout the Upper
Great Lakes between Monday night and Tuesday.Dry and windy conditions are expected to develop across California today
and produce Santa Ana winds throughout Southern California. Maximum wind
gusts up to 75 mph are possible which has prompted High Wind Warnings to
be issued for parts of the region. These conditions also equate to a
Critical Risk of fire weather due to the potential for extreme fire growth
if a fire starts. Windy conditions should begin to diminish on Tuesday.The temperature outlook through Halloween includes widespread below
average temperatures over the central U.S. eventually overspreading the
East Coast, with potentially record-breaking warmth remaining over the
southern Mid-Atlantic for a few additional days. Numerous daily record
high temperatures are possible throughout the Carolinas and southern
Virginia as highs so into the mid-80s today before much cooler
temperatures enter on Tuesday. Pumpkins, ghouls, and goblins will likely
wake up to a visit from Jack Frost on Halloween as sub-freezing low
temperatures are forecast to spread as far south as central and western
Texas on Tuesday, as well as much of the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio valleys.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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