Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 18 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 18 2023 – 12Z Fri Oct 20 2023…An Alberta clipper will spread gusty winds farther south into the
central Plains today as rain moves across the northern Plains and upper
Midwest……Rain is expected for the Great Lakes on Thursday into Friday as
scattered thunderstorms develop and expand across the Mid-South into the
Southeast……A warming trend in the western U.S. will lead to high temperatures
challenging daily records by Thursday…
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
An Alberta clipper tracking east-southeast into the northern Plains this
morning is bringing scattered areas of rain across the northern Plains
into the upper Midwest. Very gusty dry winds behind the system have been
overspreading much of the northern High Plains early this morning. These
gusty winds are expected to shift southeastward into the north-central
Plains today before subsiding tonight. The center of the clipper will
continue its eastward journey through the upper Great Lakes, bringing
rainy weather for much of the Great Lakes through Friday. Meanwhile,
showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop farther south ahead of
the trailing cold front over the Ohio Valley and down into the
mid-Mississippi Valley as well as the interior Deep South later on
Thursday into Friday. By Friday morning, a low pressure system may begin
to form near the North Carolina coast where the chance of thunderstorms
with heavy rain will increase.The cool weather pattern across the eastern U.S. will slowly break down
over the next couple of days as a high pressure ridge slides off the East
Coast. The Southeast, and especially Florida, will hold on to the cool
temperatures into Friday but increasing southerly flow across the interior
eastern U.S. will help raise temperatures to near normal levels there by
Thursday. The Northeast will still be stuck in plenty of clouds today
before the cool weather pattern breaks down on Thursday. In contrast, the
warm and dry weather pattern over much of the western U.S. is forecast to
get warmer over the next couple of days, with high temperatures nearing or
breaking daily records at quite a number of locations from California to
Arizona and farther north across the interior Pacific Northwest and Idaho.
More record highs could spread east into Colorado and southeastern Texas
on Friday. Meanwhile, the above normal temperatures could top the century
mark for the next few days over the Desert Southwest. The warm weather
pattern in the western U.S. will also help keeping the heavy rain to stay
just off to the north and northwest of the Pacific Northwest across
Vancouver Island.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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