Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 13 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 13 2023 – 12Z Sun Oct 15 2023…Potent low pressure system continues to spread heavy rain and severe
weather across the north-central Plains to the Midwest today……Some heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms expected to slide across the
Pennsylvania and northern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday/early Sunday as the low
re-intensifies near the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night/early Sunday…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A large and powerful low pressure system, the first of its kind so far
this fall season, is bringing widespread moderate to heavy rain as well as
strong gusty winds across the north-central portion of the country this
morning. The system is forecast to reach peak intensity early this
morning over the north-central Great Plains as it tracks generally
eastward, reaching the Mid-Atlantic coast by late on Saturday. The
heaviest rains are expected to move eastward through the upper Midwest
today, and then across the Mid-Atlantic states on Saturday well in advance
of the low pressure center. Meanwhile, the strongest winds are expected
to occur following the passage of the low center as colder and drier air
rushes in behind the storm. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in
effect for much of the north-central Plains. In addition, thunderstorms
are expected to develop just ahead of the low pressure system, impacting
many areas across the Midwest today into tonight, with the possibility for
the thunderstorms to become severe near the intersecting frontal
boundaries and clashing air masses where large hail, damaging wind gusts,
and tornadoes are possible.The low pressure system is forecast to weaken as it continues to slide
eastward across the Ohio Valley on Saturday with a band of moderate to
heavy rain with some embedded thunderstorms early in the day across the
lower Great Lakes and then quickly shift eastward into the northern
Mid-Atlantic through Saturday night. Meanwhile, a low pressure wave
currently developing near a stationary front over northern Florida is
forecast to track northeastward up the southeast U.S. coast through today
and Saturday, then merge with the northern stream low early on Sunday.
This interaction will result in a rapidly intensifying low pressure system
to move off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night into early
Sunday. A period of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms are possible
over the northern Mid-Atlantic Saturday night before cool and blustery
north to northwesterly winds rush into the region on Sunday. Meanwhile, a
large area of unsettled weather is forecast to extend well behind the
exiting storm through the Ohio Valley and into the southern portion of the
Great Lakes with cool afternoon temperatures but slow improvement in the
weather during the weekend.Meanwhile, cold air on the backside of the low pressure system has already
brought the first major high elevation snow across parts of the central
and southern Rockies. Relatively quiet conditions are expected to prevail
across the rest of the interior western U.S. On the other hand, rain is
forecast to linger over the Pacific Northwest ahead of a weakening front.
Some of the rain will extend farther south into northern California early
today before tapering off.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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