Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Oct 04 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 04 2023 – 12Z Fri Oct 06 2023…There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains on Wednesday……Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average from the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Northeast…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley southward to the
Southern High Plains will slowly move eastward to the Upper Great Lakes to
the Southern Plains by Thursday. A secondary front moving southward from
West-Central Canada will move southward and reinforce the lead front by
Thursday evening. Tropical moisture streaming northward from the Western
Gulf of Mexico will move northward over the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley, producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over northeastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, and extreme southwestern
Arkansas. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley
through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous
areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially
affecting larger rivers.Moreover, the boundary will create showers and severe thunderstorms over
parts of Texas and Oklahoma. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains through
Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. Further, the front will produce showers and thunderstorms from
the Upper Great Lakes southward to the Southern Plains.Additionally, on Thursday, the threat of excessive rainfall will decrease
to a Marginal Risk over the Southern Plains/Western Gulf Coast, as the
severe thunderstorm threat ends with just showers and thunderstorms
extending from the Great Lakes southwestward to the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley.Meanwhile, as the secondary front moves southward, mainly rain and a few
scattered highest elevations snow showers will develop over parts of the
Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains on late Wednesday night. On
Thursday, the rain will move into parts of the Northern Plains/Mississippi
Valley and the Upper Great Lakes by Thursday evening.Furthermore, the upper-level ridging extends from the Western/Central Gulf
Coast to the Great Lakes/Northeast, allowing temperatures to be 15 to 25
degrees above normal over parts of the Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley,
Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast. Next, onshore flow off the Atlantic
will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of Florida from
Wednesday into Friday. Additionally, overnight Thursday, moisture from the
Atlantic moves into parts of the Mid-Atlantic, producing scattered showers
and thunderstorms near the coast.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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