Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Oct 02 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 02 2023 – 12Z Wed Oct 04 2023…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
High Plains on Monday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Monday and over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains on Tuesday……Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the higher elevations of Northern
Rockies…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
On Monday, an upper-level low over parts of the Great Basin will slowly
weaken and move eastward to the Northern Plains and Central/Southern
Rockies by Wednesday. By Wednesday, the associated front will move
eastward across the Central/Southern Rockies on Monday to the
Central/Southern Plains. Ahead of the boundary, moisture from the Western
Gulf of Mexico will pool over the Southern High Plains, producing showers
and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southern High Plains through Tuesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.Moreover, the front will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over
eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains
through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.On Tuesday, the threat of excessive rainfall will diminish slightly to a
broad area of Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall from the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Southern Plains. The associated
heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas
that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.In addition, as the front moves eastward over the Plains, showers and
severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central/Southern
Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains from Tuesday into
Wednesday morning.The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.Meanwhile, upper-level troughing over the western part of the country will
allow temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of the
Great Basin, the Northern Intermountain Region, the Pacific Northwest, and
the Northern Rockies. Under the upper-level trough, rain and, at the
highest elevations, moderate to heavy snow will develop over parts of the
Northern Rockies through Wednesday. Furthermore, upper-level ridging
extending from the Gulf Coast to the Upper Great Lakes will allow
temperatures to be 15 to 25 degrees above normal over parts of the Upper
Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes, the Central Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Western Ohio Valley.Furthermore, a weak front will move over the Pacific Northwest and
dissipate by Tuesday, creating rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest on
Monday into Tuesday.Lastly, onshore flow off the Atlantic will aid in producing showers and
thunderstorms over parts of Florida through Wednesday.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
|
|
|
| 8–
14 |
|
|
| 3–
4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
–
