Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 25 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 25 2023 – 12Z Wed Sep 27 2023…Heavy rain and the potential for scattered flash flooding exists over
parts of the Upper Midwest through Tuesday……Unsettled weather pattern with daily chances for widely scattered
thunderstorms to set up over Florida this week……A few rounds of moderate to locally heavy rainfall forecast throughout
northern California and the Pacific Northwest into midweek…
| Notices: We just published the new NOAA Seasonal Outlook and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
The start to a new workweek will include a few pockets of showers and
thunderstorms, but generally feature a tame fall weather pattern across
CONUS. A slow-moving low pressure system spinning in the Upper Midwest
today will help spark scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
region. Since these storms are likely to move relatively slowly and
potentially contain intense rainfall rates, instances of flash flooding
are possible. The greatest chances for heavy rain is forecast today across
far southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and southwest Wisconsin. Here, a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued. Rainfall
chances will slide southeastward with this system on Tuesday over the
Midwest, with more chances for locally intense rainfall rates, and
eventually enter the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.Farther south along a stalled frontal boundary, isolated thunderstorms
could turn severe today across southern Texas. Large and hail and damaging
wind gusts are possible, as well as locally heavy rain. Meanwhile, Florida
is also expected to be an area where increasing thunderstorm activity
could lead to localized severe storms. The unsettled weather pattern over
the Sunshine State is expected to become more pronounced as the week goes
on, with greater coverage of thunderstorms capable of containing intense
rainfall rates and frequent lightning. A Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of
Excessive Rainfall has been issued for Tuesday and Wednesday over much of
Florida as well as into parts of southern Georgia, with urban areas most
at risk for rapid water rises during downpours.A very strong low pressure system churning over the northeast Pacific
Ocean has helped usher in early season beneficial rainfall to much of the
Pacific Northwest and northern California. Moderate to locally heavy rain
spreading inland today along a cold front is expected to impact areas of
Oregon and Washington experiencing severe to extreme drought conditions.
Another round of locally heavy rain embedded within continuous rounds of
scattered showers is forecast to enter the region late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday. One area where too much rain could lead to localized
flooding concerns is across southwest Oregon and northern California. This
is due to recent burn scars in the area that are unable to retain heavy
rainfall, potentially leading to debris flows.Temperatures are anticipated to remain well below average through
Wednesday across the Mid-Atlantic and West Coast, where a combination of
rain, wind, and cloud cover will keep temperatures cool. A coastal storm
gradually exiting into the western Atlantic Ocean while underneath a
potent high pressure system building over eastern Canada will help funnel
easterly winds and light rain into the Mid-Atlantic, with some embedded
heavier showers over parts of Long Island and southern Connecticut today.
Conversely, above average temperatures are forecast over much of the
central U.S. (spanning from the northern High Plains to the Mid-South),
where highs into the 80s and low 90s will be common.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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