Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Sep 21 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 21 2023 – 12Z Sat Sep 23 2023…Below-normal temperatures expected across much of the western U.S.,
with widespread precipitation over the northern Intermountain West and
Rockies……Strong to severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall expected for
portions of the northern & southern Plains……Gusty winds, heavy rain, and high surf likely for portions of the
Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic Friday and into the weekend..
| Notices: We recently published the ENSO Alert Update and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A potent upper level trough over the northwestern U.S. will be responsible
for an abnormally cool temperature regime throughout the second half of
the work week. Temperatures are cold enough that parts of southern Oregon
and northern California are under Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings
this morning. There are also Winter Weather Advisories in parts of the
northern Rockies that are in effect through Thursday evening where a few
inches of snow are possible in the highest elevations. Daytime high
temperature anomalies today will range between 15 to 25 degrees below
normal from the northern Rockies to southern California. The storm system
traversing the Intermountain West will also trigger showers and storms
into parts of the Intermountain West today and Friday. On the flip-side,
gusty and dry conditions are key cogs in an Elevated Fire Weather risk in
parts of northern California today.In the Nation’s Heartland, the aforementioned upper low in the Northwest
will also play a role in what looks to be a wet and stormy end to the
week. A pair of frontal boundaries; one in the Southern Plains and the
other in the Northern Plains are going to help spark widespread heavy
showers and storms. There are a pair of Slight Risks for Excessive
Rainfall and severe weather today in the Southern and Northern Plains. By
Friday, as the upper low tracks a little farther east, the Excessive
Rainfall and severe weather threat becomes positioned over the northern
Plains. From a severe weather standpoint, large hail and damaging wind
gusts are the primary concerns, although some severe storms could also
produce tornadoes. In the southern Plains, summer-like heat remains in the
forecast as daytime highs routinely reach the 90s throughout the vast
majority of Texas through Friday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has
also issued an Elevated Threat area for fire weather in the southern High
Plains on Friday.In the East, the spotlight shines brightest on a frontal system off the
Southeast coast that is forecast to direct a slug of rich subtropical
moisture from the Carolina Coast today to the coastal Mid-Atlantic on
Friday. A narrow Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall extending from South
Florida to southern South Carolina today grows on Friday to encompass most
of the heavily urbanized Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. There is a Slight Risk
in place from Myrtle Beach SC on north to the southern New Jersey shore on
Saturday. There still remains some uncertainty on storm track; a farther
inland track would bring heavy rainfall farther west into the central
Appalachians by the start of the weekend. The aspect of the forecast that
has greater confidence in causing detrimental impacts are gusty winds and
battering surf that may result in coastal flooding along the Mid-Atlantic
coast. This area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast has been
designated with a 40% chance for tropical development over the next 7
days. After a seasonally mild day today along the East Coast, the surge in
high-mid level clouds and periods of rain should lead to more October-like
temperatures from the Mid-Atlantic to New England this Friday and into the
upcoming weekend.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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