It is now Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee rather than Hurricane Lee with the change occurring right after I published so I could not change the title of the article.
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Sep 16 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 16 2023 – 12Z Mon Sep 18 2023…Tropical storm conditions for coastal New England today as Lee tracks
by……Shower and storm chances this weekend from the Southern Plains to the
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic with some locally heavy rainfall possible……Much above average highs expected for the Pacific Northwest/Northern
Rockies this weekend with a Critical Risk of Fire Weather Saturday…
![[Key Messages]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132023_key_messages+png/054829_key_messages_sm.png)
| Notices: We recently published the ENSO Alert Update and you can access that report HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Lee continues northward this morning with the center expected to track
into Nova Scotia by Saturday evening according to the latest forecast from
the National Hurricane Center. While the center of Lee is forecast to
remain east of New England, the large size of the storm has and will
continue to lead to impacts well displaced from the storm’s center.
Tropical storm conditions have overspread much of coastal New England and
are expected to continue through the day Saturday. Downed trees and and
power outages are possible. Some heavy rainfall is forecast particularly
for Downeast Maine, where a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall
is in effect for the chance of some scattered instances of flash flooding.
Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will also continue along the
Northeast Atlantic Coast through the day Saturday. High temperatures will
be a bit cool broadly for New England as clouds and precipitation linger
Saturday, with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will warm into
mid- to upper 70s Sunday as Lee departs to the Northeast.Meanwhile, showers and storms will continue this weekend in the vicinity
of a quasi-stationary surface boundary stretching from Florida west along
the Gulf Coast and into the Southern Plains. Pooling moisture along the
boundary will help contribute to some locally heavy downpours and an
isolated chance of flash flooding, particularly for portions of Texas and
the Tennessee Valley into the Appalachians. An upper-level trough will
help drive another cold front south and eastward Sunday bringing lower
precipitation chances to Texas and the Gulf Coast while helping to focus
rain chances ahead of the front along the East Coast. Some locally heavy
rainfall will again be possible, especially for portions of the coastal
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. Highs will be around average broadly for much
of the central and eastern U.S., with 60s and 70s for the Northern Plains
to the Great Lakes, 70s and 80s for the Central Plains into the Midwest
and Mid-Atlantic, and 80s and low 90s for the Southern Plains/Texas and
the Southeast.The West is forecast to remain mostly dry this weekend as an upper-level
ridge settles in over the region. Forecast high temperatures are well
above average for portions of the Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains with 80s and low 90s expected. Gusty, downslope winds
as well as dry conditions have prompted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather
(level 2/3) for portions of the Northern Rockies in Montana on Saturday,
with an Elevated Risk (level 1/3) for the Interior Pacific Northwest. High
temperatures elsewhere in the West will generally be around average, with
60s and 70s for coastal California, 80s for the central California Valleys
and Great Basin, and 90s to low 100s for the Desert Southwest.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
|
|
|
| 8–
14 |
|
|
| 3–
4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
–
