Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 04 2023Valid 12Z Mon Sep 04 2023 – 12Z Wed Sep 06 2023
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the parts of the
Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains on Monday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern/Central High Plains……There are Heat Advisories over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Northeast on Monday…
| Notices: Recently we published the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast and you can access that article HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A front over the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains will move to the
Mississippi Valley by Wednesday. The system will create showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southern Montana, northern
Wyoming, southwestern North Dakota, and northwestern North Dakota.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with
these thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern High
Plains through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, narrow crayons/gullies, and burn scars the most vulnerable.Furthermore, the front will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over
parts of northeastern Wyoming, southern North Dakota, and northwestern
North Dakota. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains through Tuesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.On Tuesday, the threat of excessive rainfall decreases slightly over the
Upper Midwest. As the front moves eastward, showers and thunderstorms with
moderate to heavy rain will develop over parts of northern South Dakota, a
large portion of North Dakota, northern Minnesota, and northwestern
Wisconsin. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley
from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience
rapid runoff with heavy rain.However, the threat of severe thunderstorms continues as the front
produces showers and severe thunderstorms over north-central Iowa,
southeastern Minnesota, and northwestern Wisconsin. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Upper Mississippi
Valley Tuesday into Wednesday morning.The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, by
Wednesday morning, showers and thunderstorms will extend from the Upper
Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley to the Middle Mississippi
Valley and the Southern Plains.Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Southern Plains will aid in
creating showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Western Gulf Coast on Monday into Tuesday evening.Furthermore, upper-level ridging over the Upper Mississippi Valley, Great
Lakes, and Ohio Valley will promote hot temperatures, prompting Heat
Advisories over the Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. Heat Advisories
also creep into the Northeast as part of the upper-level ridge creeps into
the Northeast. Hot temperatures will also be over the Mid-Atlantic on
Monday. On Tuesday, the upper-level ridging will move over the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, allowing hot temperatures to continue over the
area.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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