Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Sep 02 2023Valid 12Z Sat Sep 02 2023 – 12Z Mon Sep 04 2023
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the parts of the
Southwest/Great Basin on Saturday and Great Basin/Northern Intermountain
Region on Sunday……There is an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Central
Plains on Saturday, extending into Upper Mississippi Valley on Sunday…
| Notices: Recently we published the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast and you can access that article HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Moisture streaming northward over Northwestern Mexico and upper-level
energy will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over parts of Arizona, southern Utah, southeastern Nevada, and extreme
Southeastern California. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the
Southwest/Great Basin through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, narrow crayons/gullies, and burn scars the most
vulnerable.On Sunday, moisture and upper-level energy will move northeastward over
parts of the Great Basin and Northern Intermountain Region. The area of
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will also move northeastward
over northwestern Utah, southeastern Idaho, and northwestern Wyoming.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with
these thunderstorms over parts of the Great Basin/Northern Intermountain
Region from Sunday into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, narrow crayons/gullies, and burn scars the most vulnerable.In addition, an upper-level low over Northern California and Oregon will
create rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California on
Saturday and Sunday.Meanwhile, upper-level energy over the Central Gulf Coast and tropical
moisture streaming northward over the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast will
produce showers and thunderstorms over the region through Monday.Furthermore, gusty wind, low relative humidity, and dry fuels have
prompted the SPC to issue an Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of
the Central Plains on Saturday. On Sunday, the gusty wind, low relative
humidity, and dry fuels will extend into parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley, prompting the SPC to have an Elevated Risk of fire weather over
parts of the Central Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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