Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023Valid 00Z Thu Aug 31 2023 – 00Z Sat Sep 02 2023
…Hurricane Idalia to continue producing significant impacts from
northern Florida to the Carolinas through Thursday……Heat wave to originate across the High Plains the second half of the
week, then spread into the rest of the Heartland for Labor Day Weekend……Flash Flooding possible over parts of the Northern Rockies today;
resurgence of monsoonal moisture to produce more showers and storms
throughout the Southwest late week...
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| Notices: Recently we published the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast and you can access that article HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
After making its historic landfall along the coast of the Florida Big Bend
near Keaton Beach earlier this morning, Hurricane Idalia is tracking
through southern Georgia this afternoon. It is producing a plethora of
hazards across the coastal Southeast that include tropical storm force
winds, Excessive Rainfall and inland flooding, severe storms, battering
waves, and coastal storm surge. The inland flood threat is greatest from
southeast GA on northeast into eastern SC and southern NC where WPC has
issued a Moderate Risk (threat level 3/4) for Excessive Rainfall. The
Storm Prediction Center (SPC) posted an Enhanced Risk (threat level 3/5)
along the Carolina coast with tornadoes and damaging winds the primary
threats this afternoon and into this evening. The combination of heavy
rainfall and high winds will likely result in significant to even
catastrophic impacts to infrastructure, including power outages, extensive
tree damage, and flooded roads. Coastal areas from northern FL to the NC
Outer Banks can expect anywhere from 1-4ft of storm surge trough tonight.
By Thursday morning, Idalia will be making its way off the Carolina coast,
pounding the coast of NC with more battering waves, storm surge, and
soaking the eastern Carolinas in moderate-to-heavy rainfall. WPC maintains
a Moderate Risk over eastern NC while the Marginal Risk extends as far
west as I-95 in central NC. Rainfall rates will gradually lessen
throughout the afternoon and evening as Idalia tracks farther into the
western Atlantic. Expect blustery winds, high surf, and some residual
storm surge to linger through Thursday evening.In other news, the second half of the week will be headlined by the
beginning of yet another heat wave in the High Plains. Daytime highs
Thursday will reach the 90s in the northern and central Plains with some
portions of the southern Plains surpassing the century mark. By Friday,
temperatures only grow hotter throughout the High Plains and Upper
Midwest. A larger footprint of triple digit highs will stretch from South
Texas to the central Plains Friday afternoon. This expansion of stifling
heat sets the stage for what will be a sizzling Labor Day weekend
throughout the Nation’s Heartland. In contrast, the East Coast will
experience seasonally cooler conditions through Friday, while a cold front
ushers in cooler than normal temperatures into the Pacific Northwest on
Thursday, followed by the the rest of the West Coast on Friday.Idalia is not the only system responsible for producing Excessive Rainfall
through Friday. A stalled frontal boundary along the Gulf Coast will aid
in the development of scattered showers and storms from the central Gulf
Coast to Florida through Friday. WPC has issued a Marginal Risk for the
Florida Panhandle and western Florida on Thursday, and a Slight Risk for
portions of the Florida Panhandle on Friday. In the West, an upper low
deepening over the Pacific Northwest and the strengthening ridge of high
pressure over the Heartland will work in tandem to pump additional
monsoonal moisture throughout the Intermountain West. Portions of the
Northern Rockies remain under a Slight Risk today, but the is also a
Slight Risk in southern UT, southern NV, and central AZ on Friday. Spotty
showers and storms will also be possible in parts of northern CA and
central OR both Thursday and Friday.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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14 |
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4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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