Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023Valid 00Z Tue Aug 22 2023 – 00Z Thu Aug 24 2023
…There is a Slight of excessive rainfall over parts of the Western U. S.
on Monday and Tuesday and southern Texas on Tuesday……There are Air Quality Warnings over the parts of the Pacific Northwest,
Central Rockies, and Mid-Atlantic……Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of the Plains, the
Mississippi Valley, and Central/Western Gulf Coast…
| Notices: Recently we published the ENSO Alert Update and you can access that article HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A plume of moisture associated with what was once Hilary will produce
showers and thunderstorms over parts of California, the Great Basin,
Southwest, Pacific Northwest, Northern Intermountain Region, and Northern
Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
over parts of California, Great Basin, Southwest, Pacific Northwest,
Northern Intermountain Region, and Northern Rockies through Tuesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and burn scars the
most vulnerable.In addition, the associated moisture plume will aid in producing strong to
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and
Northern. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Northern
Rockies through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
minor threat of hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.The threat of excessive rainfall continues on Tuesday as showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain develop over parts of the Great Basin,
Southwest, and Northern Intermountain Region. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over
two regions, the first area over parts of the Northern Intermountain
Region and the second over parts of the Great Basin, on Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and burn
scars the most vulnerable.In addition, on Tuesday, Potential Tropical Cyclone NINE over the northern
Gulf of Mexico will stream moisture into the Western Gulf Coast, producing
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of
the Western Gulf Coast (southern Texas) on Tuesday. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.Elsewhere, a front over the Northeast will settle over the Mid-Atlantic by
Tuesday. The system will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Northeast on Monday evening. In addition, a wave of low
pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley will produce scatted showers
and thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper
Great Lakes on Tuesday. As the wave moves eastward, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on
Wednesday. Further, onshore flow off the Atlantic will continue to produce
showers and thunderstorms over the southern tip of Florida through
Wednesday.Moreover, wildfire smoke over parts of the Pacific Northwest, Central
Rockies, and Mid-Atlantic has prompted Air Quality Alerts over parts of
the Pacific Northwest Central Rockies and Mid-Atlantic on Monday evening
into Tuesday morning.Meanwhile, an upper-level high over the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi
Valley will create oppressive daytime heat, limited overnight cooling,
which will also contribute to the effects of heat, prompting Excessive
Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over portions of the Central/Southern
Plains, the Upper/Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, Central/Western Gulf
Coast.In addition, extremely dangerous heat will expand and intensify across
much of the central U.S., with numerous daily high-temperature records
expected, especially in Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Parts of
the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains will experience
heat index readings near or above record levels this afternoon through
Thursday this week. The excessive heat threat will begin to retreat from
the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley later this week before settling
over the Gulf Coast this weekend. Take the heat seriously and avoid
extended time outdoors. Temperatures and heat indices will reach levels
that would pose a health risk and be potentially deadly to anyone without
effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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