Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Aug 19 2023Valid 12Z Sat Aug 19 2023 – 12Z Mon Aug 21 2023
…Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding likely over portions of the
Southwest……Dangerous heat expanding over the central U.S…..
![[Image of WPC Flash Flooding/Excessive Rainfall Outlook]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP09/refresh/EP0923WPCERO+gif/085022WPCERO_sm.gif)
| Notices: Recently we published the ENSO Alert Update and you can access that article HERE. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Hurricane Hilary has now turned north-northwestward and is forecast to
track near Baja California before making landfall near the U.S.-Mexico
border later this weekend. Heavy rainfall associated with the system is
forecast to develop across the southwestern U.S. today, well in advance of
the storm’s center, and continue through the weekend, with the heaviest
amounts expected on Sunday. Highly anomalous moisture transport into the
region will support rainfall amounts exceeding the average annual totals
for some locations in the Southwest. Flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is
expected, with dangerous and locally catastrophic impacts likely. In
addition to flooding rains, Hilary is forecast to bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of southern California on Sunday. Large swells
will affect portions of southern California over the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Widespread cloud cover will keep temperatures below average,
with unseasonably cool temperatures forecast to expand northward from
southern California and western Arizona into the Sierra Nevada and the
Great Basin through the weekend.In contrast to the temperatures in the West, dangerous heat will continue
to intensify and expand, with well above-normal to record-breaking
temperatures forecast across the Plains and lower Mississippi Valley
today. The heat wave will continue to expand on Sunday to include more of
the Midwest on Sunday. This weekend, some locations in the Midwest may
experience their hottest day of the year. The prolonged nature of the
heat wave, combined with very warm overnight temperatures, will limit
relief from the oppressive daytime temperatures and compound the overall
heat impacts.A relatively quiet period is expected for much of the eastern U.S., with
shower and thunderstorms confined mainly to Florida and the Southeast
coast. After another day of seasonal to below-average temperatures today,
summer heat is forecast to return to much of the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic states on Sunday.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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