Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 10 2023Valid 12Z Thu Aug 10 2023 – 12Z Sat Aug 12 2023
…Dangerous heat will persist across much of the southern tier of the
U.S……Severe thunderstorms possible today across the Carolinas while heavy
rain could impact southern New England tonight……Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms expected for the upper Midwest
to the Great Lakes from late Thursday through early Saturday…
| Notices: Recently we published the Update to the previously published Mid-Month Outlook for August and you can access that article HERE. We recommend reading the full report as it is very important. Looking at the full article provides a more coherent view of the overall Four-Season Outlook. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
The remarkably persistent weather pattern manifested by a broad upper
trough across the eastern U.S. will continue to trigger rounds of active
weather across the region through tonight, as the next round of active
weather moves across the northern tier states by Friday and into the
weekend. The first round of active weather will be focused across the
interior Southeast this morning near and to the north of a stationary
front. But as the front is forecast to dissipate later today, a broad
area of active weather is expected to expand across much of the eastern
U.S. through tonight. This is in response to a developing low pressure
system whose center is forecast to track across the southern New England
coast tonight. Within this broad area of active weather, severe
thunderstorms are possible today across the Carolinas while heavy rain
could impact southern New England tonight. The low pressure system will
likely intensify more rapidly during the day on Friday as it moves quickly
away into the Canadian Maritimes. Much of the East Coast will see much
improved weather on Friday but scattered thunderstorms will likely linger
across the Southeast as the trailing front becomes nearly stationary there.Meanwhile, the next system of concern will move across the northern Plains
over the next couple of days. This system is forecast to spread rounds of
strong to severe thunderstorms for the upper Midwest to the Great Lakes
from late Thursday through early Saturday.Across the South, heat advisories and excessive heat warnings remain in
place from Texas eastward across the Gulf Coast states and including the
Florida Peninsula, where above-normal to record-breaking heat will
continue through the remainder of the week. The combination of heat and
humidity will result in dangerous heat indices, possibly climbing above
110F in some locations. Oppressive daytime heat, limited overnight
cooling, and widespread record warm overnight lows will pose a significant
health risk, especially for those without effective cooling and adequate
hydration.In addition to the heat, dry and breezy conditions will contribute to
elevated fire weather danger over portions of Texas. Some monsoonal moisture
is forecast to spread across the Four Corners region through the next
couple of days where scattered thunderstorms can be expected. Meanwhile,
mainly dry weather is expected to continue over the northwestern quadrant
of the country.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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