Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Aug 07 2023Valid 00Z Tue Aug 08 2023 – 00Z Thu Aug 10 2023
…Very active east coast weather late afternoon into early evening Monday
with severe weather, heavy rains and flash flooding possible from the
Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast……Heavy rains and a flash flood threat for eastern New York State into
New England Monday evening into Tuesday……Heavy rains and a flash flooding threat also from Monday night into
Wednesday across portions of the Central to Southern Plains, Middle to
Lower Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio and Lower Tennessee Valleys……Record heat to continue from the Southern Plains, along the Gulf Coast
and into Florida……Elevated fire weather risks to continue for portions of the Great
Basin, Southwest and Southern Plains……Cooler than average temperatures expected from the Northern Rockies,
through portions of the Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and
Northeast…
| Notices: Recently we published the Update to the previously published Mid-Month Outlook for August and you can access that article HERE. We recommend reading the full report as it is very important. Looking at the full article provides a more coherent view of the overall Four-Season Outlook. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Several areas of the nation will experience very active weather over the
next few days, with numerous thunderstorms, severe weather and flash
flooding threats. A strong front pushing east this afternoon from the
eastern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley into the Lower Mississippi is helping to
fuel a large region of thunderstorms Monday afternoon from the Lower
Mississippi Valley, through the Appalachians and into the Upper Ohio
Valley. These thunderstorms will be pushing across the the Mid Atlantic
and Southeast late this afternoon/early evening, producing heavy rains,
the potential for severe weather and flash flooding. The severe weather
threat is anomalously large across the Southeast, Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and
tornadoes are all possible across these areas Monday afternoon/evening
with the greatest threat will likely be from damaging winds.Quieter weather expected across much of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic by
early Tuesday. The emphasis for heavy rains associated with the eastern
U.S. strong front will be shifting farther to the northeast across eastern
New York State into New England. At the moment, it appears the severe
weather threat will be less for this region compared to what is expected
to occur over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. However, heavier rains are
likely across these areas, with an increasing risk of flash flooding.The western portion of the front that pushes through the eastern U.S. will
become stationary from the lee of the Central Rockies, southeastward
through the Southern Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This
front will act as a focus for more than one round of organized
thunderstorms to push southeastward from Monday night into Wednesday.
This will produce a threat of heavy rains and flash flooding across
portions of the Central to Southern Plains, Middle to Lower Mississippi
Valley, Lower Ohio and Lower Tennessee Valleys.While heavy rains and severe thunderstorms affect portions of the central
to eastern U.S., the unrelenting heat wave of the summer of 2023 will
continue across the southern tier of the nation from the Southwest, into
the Southern Plains, along the Gulf Coast and into Florida. Much of this
region has seen record high temperatures and record high morning low
temperatures over the past weekend. This record potential is likely to
continue through the upcoming week. Excessive heat warnings and heat
advisories are currently in effect across large portions of the southern
tier of the nation and will likely continue through much of this week as
there is no end in sight to the current large scale pattern that is
driving this heat wave.In addition to the heat, a fire weather threat will continue over the next
few days across portions of the Great Basin, Southwest and Southern
Plains. A combination of dry conditions, low relative humidities and
gusty winds will continue to produce the fire weather threat.In contrast to the much above average temperatures across large portions
of the southern tier of the nation, cooler than average temperatures are
expected over the next few days from the Northern Rockies, across portions
of the Central Plains, Mid Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Northeast.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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